JJ NL400 am I crushed?

[Eternal]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $271.00
Hero (BB): $420.20
UTG: $491.00
UTG+1: $132.30
MP1: $512.50
MP2: $456.70
CO: $175.00
BTN: $737.60

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG calls $4.00, 2 folds, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $18.00</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $14.00, UTG calls $14.00

Flop: ($56) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets $40.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $120.00</font>, UTG calls $120.00, MP2 folds

Turn: ($336) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero ?


Any thoughts on what to do OOP? After that, please more thoughts on next action below.

Turn: ($336) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $100.00</font>, [i]Hero?

[GrandMelon]

1. I usually 3 bet preflop barring hes not some huge nit
2. c/ring that flop is terrible.
3. As played you cant fold that river getting over 4:1

[jhill3535]

We can see the river, that is the Turn, Melon.

[KurtSF]

Eternal, why no re-raise preflop?

Postflop is pretty tough. You're in the BB so you've got a pretty huge range to him. Made straight, TP and OESD or FD, FD, two pair, overpair, etc. Your line strikes me as a semibluff.

Curiously he chooses the give the FD even odds with his turn bet. At this point I'd make most of his range as 44+, which you don't do very well against. The stack sizes are also awkward, making the pot $500 on the river with only $200 behind. This looks to me like he is trying to get all in, which says monster to me.

Yes, I think you're crushed.

Even if you do happen to be ahead this looks like a classic RIO situation. Fold and reload?

I would prefer a 3-bet preflop to ~$60. I think that would make this easier to play OOP if it doesn't just take it down.

[SABR42]

C/R this flop is horrible if you don't have a plan for the rest of the hand.

[Warren Harding]

I think you're crushed based on the flop call. As another commenter stated, UTG is following a line designed to get his stack in.

Now for a hijack

Suppose we take away the flop and plan an attack from the beginning with the OOP wired jacks. I see three potential lines, supposing deep stacks:
1) RR by 3x the original raise, fold to another raise
2) Call PF. Check-fold an Axx flop, Check-call a cbet otherwise. Check turn to see what PFRer does and make a decision.
3) Call PF. Check-fold an Axx flop, Check-call a cbet otherwise. Bet-fold most turns.

Being OOP is the problem. In most situations, I feel (3) is best as it keeps the pot more manageable and allows us to win more from missed high cards and lose less to bigger pairs. It risks allowing worse hands to see four cards though. (1) is good too, especially in this case because I think villain's range includes medium PP and semi-steal high cards. Unfortunately, we are investing a lot of money into a growing pot OOP with a difficult hand to play, and a large cbet looming. I think (2) is usually the worst.

What do you all think? At 25NL? At 200NL?

[KurtSF]

I can't answer for 200NL, so for the microstakes...

I don't see that out hand is strong enough for us to make a plan to play it for value on any non-A flop. Don't like 30% of non-A flops come with at least one overcard anyway?

I don't see a reason not to rr pre.

Can you explain what you think MP2's range is, and how calling pre can get us value? Also, how does the potential of getting caught between UTG and MP2 affect this?

[moldman]

The UTG check/call of a bet and raise preflop means you're in trouble. Assuming UTG isn't retarded (not an automatic assumption, but without reads, I give people credit at this level), the only hand you're ahead of is 88, and even that is doubtful. I think you see a set here at least 80% of the time.

[Warren Harding]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't answer for 200NL, so for the microstakes...

I don't see that out hand is strong enough for us to make a plan to play it for value on any non-A flop. Don't like 30% of non-A flops come with at least one overcard anyway?

I don't see a reason not to rr pre.

Can you explain what you think MP2's range is, and how calling pre can get us value? Also, how does the potential of getting caught between UTG and MP2 affect this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I play micro too

I would put MP on 88+ KQo+ J+T+s approximately, though the end of the range is discounted somewhat. The question is will a raise:
1) allow us to get value from most of the worst hands in MP's range, or
2) allow him to fold the hands we beat.
I suspect #1 is true and #2 is often no big tragedy, so in this case we RR. But focusing on more general times we get called, do we like our situation? Big pot where we do not know where we stand. That calls for a cbet, which is now inflated. I still lean toward RR but I am curious if there is a better line.

[CalledDownLight]

I'm not sure that hes folding AA or KK here given the action, but if I thought he might then I shove as a bluff given that his bet left him enough behind to fold to a shove. Otherwise just fold because you're beat and this board is really wet.