Contender (Boxing) - Forbes vs. Brewer

[Post-Oak]

I really like Brewer at +240.

Forbes was the favorite coming into the tournament, due to his being a former (paper) champion. This (thoroughly paper) championship was won at the 130 pound limit though. He didn't beat an actual reigning champion, but won the vacant title by beating a journeyman who had 7 losses on his record.

Tonight's fight will be 10 rounds (a huge difference from the show's 5 round bouts), and the weight limit was set at 150 lbs.

Brewer normally fights at Junior Middleweight (154 lbs) and should have a significant size advantage.

Brewer's career:
http://www.boxrec.com/boxer_display.php?boxer_id=044367

Forbe's career:
http://www.boxrec.com/boxer_display.php?boxer_id=014432

Forbes is 32-3 with 9 KOs. He had no power at 130, so of course he can't hurt Brewer.

Brewer is 21-11 with 12 KOs. The 11 losses is eye popping, but you have to understand what kind of fighter Brewer was. Basically, he was a guy who had a full time job who was brought in as the "opponent" for rising stars. Many times he was brought in on short notice.

Some of the names he has lost to: Kelly Pavlik, Peter Manfredo Jr., Jermain Taylor, Carlos Bojorquez, Jose Zertuche, Sechew Powell and Marco Antonio Rubio. Boxing fans know these guys. They range from finge contenders to an undisputed world champion.

It is worth noting that his loss to Powell was a SD in which he knocked Sechew down. It is also worth noting that he has derailed the careers of a couple of prospects he was brought in to be the journeyman "opponent" for. For example, he knocked out very highly touted Anthony Thompson.

Brewer is much bigger, physically stronger, hits harder, and has a superior reach. Forbes is smarter, stays busier, and technically superior (especially defensively).

It's not that I can't see the smaller guy outworking/out slicking Brewer. I definitely can. It's just that I don't see how Brewer can go off at anything higher than +150 or so.

Forbes should only be a slight favorite here.