$225: TP + flush draw

[Shillx]

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I like the play. Another flush draw is unlikely to call because they're odds are poor and if they do call your pair and and the fact you have two of their outs makes you a favourite. You may be against a higher pocket pair or a set but this isn't that likely.

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I disagree with all of this.

- I wouldn't expect a flush draw to fold
- I wouldn't fold a flush draw in his spot
- You will probably be a dog if called by a flush draw (this is debatable)
- He will oftentimes have an overpair and that is why a push is clearly correct. We are only small dog against one but something like 77 will be in bad shape against our range and we give him the chance to call and make a major mistake. And even when he makes the right play we still net a good amount of equity.

Against one projected range, 77 has ~23% equity against us and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] has over 41%. That is right around the point where it becomes +$EV to call (in reality the % is lower but that is the case under freezeout conditions).

[suzzer99]

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Strawberrys is his name. Newer player. In game I have HUD stats but I usually don't have/take time to write them down but I will take your advice into consideration Suzzer.

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You can't open up PT and look up his stats? To post a read-based $225 hand I think it might be worth the hassle.

Against an unknown I'd guess he folds 15% of the time there. People can lay down 88 sometimes. They seem to everytime I have a set anyway.

[linuxrocks]

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Strawberrys is his name. Newer player. In game I have HUD stats but I usually don't have/take time to write them down but I will take your advice into consideration Suzzer.

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You can't open up PT and look up his stats? To post a read-based $225 hand I think it might be worth the hassle.

Against an unknown I'd guess he folds 20% of the time there. People can lay down 88 sometimes.

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I guess he meant stats at the time of playing. He probably has to filter the stats by early levels as well.

[suzzer99]

Which can all be done after the fact.

[darinvg]

99% of my time on 2p2 is at my day job so I don't have access to my poker stuff. I've never really used PT to look people up since it's really slow but I can if really needed.

[Pudge714]

Once you bet the flop b/3b, chek call is fine as well.

[suzzer99]

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99% of my time on 2p2 is at my day job so I don't have access to my poker stuff. I've never really used PT to look people up since it's really slow but I can if really needed.

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Yeah I don't do it much either. But for a $225 I might.

[kleath]

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2. You have no FE, once he raises.


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That is not true, lots of people will lay down a smallish overpair. As usual darin provides us with no reads though. Darin - name, stats? SS (it's ok with PS to check after the fact right?) How did he get his chips? If you can't see that stuff most of the time, then I think you're playing too many tables too win this high.

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The people who value raise 88 here dont generally fold it to a 3bet, at least in my exp.

[suzzer99]

I do. I feel like I'm probably good, but I don't really want to risk half the deck scaring me off. If villian is solid, and he shoves, he either had me beat or on some kind of ballsy semi-bluff, so I probably fold. A5 or 66 or something will often call and want to get to a cheap showdown as bad as I do.

I guess you could flatcall in villian's spot with 88. But it just seems like so many people feel compelled to fire a 2nd barrel in those spots.

I'm always surprised/annoyed when I have AA in darin's spot and the dude folds to a shove. I remember enough of them that I know it doesn't happen zero % of the time. 15-20% feels about right. I'm giving an unknown at a $225 about 5% more credit.