top set goes horribly wrong - call overbet river push?

[smartalecc5]

f

[fringsrache]

i am pretty sure id talk myself into calling but i think its bad.
his play is just so obvious that it cant be true... sick... dunno... if u cant make a decision just time out... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[recallme]

What are his AF`S and WSD stats`?

[klownage]

Hate it, but yah fold.

[blablabla]

I like his line with a set or AQ to + bluffs obv.

[Teh1337zor]

[ QUOTE ]
i am pretty sure id talk myself into calling but i think its bad.
his play is just so obvious that it cant be true... sick... dunno... if u cant make a decision just call before timing out and then throw your monitor through the window when your wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

[fringsrache]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i am pretty sure id talk myself into calling but i think its bad.
his play is just so obvious that it cant be true... sick... dunno... if u cant make a decision just call before timing out and then throw your monitor through the window when your wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

thats sound advice,too. maybe u should time out 60% of the time and throw ur monitor the other times.

[mperich]

This is an a hi flush like 80% of the time at least

-Mike

[jay b.]

I'd fold it

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($36) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $28</font>, SB calls $28.

Turn: ($92) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $70</font>, SB calls $70.

[/ QUOTE ]
IMO, given your hand and the board here and not looking at the river, it seems like he has a flush draw here extremely often. When that ace comes, I look at it as an opportunity to get the nut flush draw to call off way more than it should (in an FTOP sense), so I would be betting this turn much larger than a standard second barrel. I don't feel this is exploitable, because I'm not betting my hand and much as I'm betting his. In the moment I probably just click pot, but I think if I was playing well, I would either:
1) overbet a strange amount, or
2) underbet a strange amount, only if I thought villain was really aggressive and would jump at this weakness and CR me, or
3) shove with the hope of looking like a bluff and inducing a hero call.

If it hadn't been the ace, I'd like the normal two barrel size better (but I'd still probably pot, because I want to crush implied odds). But still, if he has some 8x or medium pockets, he's not calling any turn bet anyway, and there's very few combos of Kx, so your bet may as well target the hands that are drawing to beat you.

You can't call river; I think Miller said something about "don't make their optimistic calls correct".