top set goes horribly wrong - call overbet river push?

schwza · #1 06-30-2007, 01:55 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($299.90)
CO ($150)
Button ($384)
SB ($665)
BB ($400)
Hero ($502)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $16, 3 folds, SB calls $14, 1 fold.

Flop: ($36) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $28, SB calls $28.

Turn: ($92) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $70, SB calls $70.

River: ($232) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $551 (All-In), hero?

villain seems like an ok regular. i have him at 25/14. he's never really done much that jumped out at me.

wpr101 · #2 06-30-2007, 01:59 AM

Looks like it could be clubs, but he wants you to think that as well. However, i could see someone making this one of the lower sets and hoping to get a call from AK/AQ. I think he would have to be a pretty crazy player to try to bluff you off AK here. Just a few thoughts.

sdv · #3 06-30-2007, 02:01 AM

fold w\o reads. almost all regs at nl400 pretty nitty (me to also)..

wpr101 · #4 06-30-2007, 02:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
fold w\o reads. almost all regs at nl400 pretty nitty (me to also)..

[/ QUOTE ]

Who are you on Stars?

Vammakala · #5 06-30-2007, 05:20 AM

Is this ever NOT clubs? Without a read I'd be inclined to think this is clubs like always...

Jinx · #6 06-30-2007, 05:35 AM

His riv bet size is obv fishy. Just gotta decide what level he's on. That said I think he has 2 hearts here a lot but I'd probably puss out and fold.

jfish · #7 06-30-2007, 06:23 AM

calling is more fun than folding.

mperich · #8 06-30-2007, 04:57 PM

This is an a hi flush like 80% of the time at least

-Mike

jay b. · #9 06-30-2007, 05:51 PM

I'd fold it

ddubois · #10 06-30-2007, 06:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($36) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $28, SB calls $28.

Turn: ($92) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $70, SB calls $70.

[/ QUOTE ]
IMO, given your hand and the board here and not looking at the river, it seems like he has a flush draw here extremely often. When that ace comes, I look at it as an opportunity to get the nut flush draw to call off way more than it should (in an FTOP sense), so I would be betting this turn much larger than a standard second barrel. I don't feel this is exploitable, because I'm not betting my hand and much as I'm betting his. In the moment I probably just click pot, but I think if I was playing well, I would either:
1) overbet a strange amount, or
2) underbet a strange amount, only if I thought villain was really aggressive and would jump at this weakness and CR me, or
3) shove with the hope of looking like a bluff and inducing a hero call.

If it hadn't been the ace, I'd like the normal two barrel size better (but I'd still probably pot, because I want to crush implied odds). But still, if he has some 8x or medium pockets, he's not calling any turn bet anyway, and there's very few combos of Kx, so your bet may as well target the hands that are drawing to beat you.

You can't call river; I think Miller said something about "don't make their optimistic calls correct".