100NL to fire the third or to shutdown?

[Wraths Unanimous]

Villian is dandickau on PS. Nittyish 19/14 player. Pretty sure he is 2p2. No immediate history between us, he probably sees me as a nit lately. So do we foire the river here or not? My only reasoning for not firing hthe river is that I cant assing a range that folds on the river to a bet except for 77/88. He could easily have a J10s, 910s type of hand, I think a set he would have raised the turn though. A pair like JJ here seems unlikely to me.

SB: $96.35
BB: $154.45
Hero (UTG): $128.75
BTN: $350.60

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6.50</font>, BTN calls $6.50

Turn: ($22.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, BTN calls $17

River: ($56.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero

[davidwrunner]

A nitty player that calls a sizeable turn bet - I think i shut dowm here.

[Alobar]

His range is pretty small I would think. JTs, 88, 77, QJcc. T9 or a set raises the flop I would think.

I think a 3rd barrell should show a profit, cuz I cant see him calling with 88 or 77, and you were given the perfect card to do this with. And your image is a definite plus


also, I prolly check the turn against a guy like this when he calls my flop bet. That turn card only helps him

[manupod]

You've got to fire here as you're going to fold his 89 and 67 type crap.

[john voight]

why would you want to fold out 89
imo 9x is capable of calling here (even from a nit, if your line dosent look right) and Tx is gunna be calling.

Reason is turn was a good 2 barell card IMO.

At the same time, there are a bunch of trashy pairs that prolly cant stand a river bet. Really tough decision IMO.

[john voight]

oh nvm i see, we deff do wanna fold out 89

[terp]

bombs away yo

edit: but if he's smart he might try to make a big call since a lot of your range (if you're a nit and play typical postflop style that a nit plays) pusses out and doesn't valuebet that river card. however, just as i would expect most nits to NOT valuebet KK on the river, i'd expect most nits in his spot to take a long hard look at 89 and throw it away.

[riske]

Go for it, and say "metagame" out loud to yourself when he calls (though he's likely folding here quite often with your image.)

[pdoran10]

i really dont give any TAG at nl100 enough hand reading credit to check here. I think if the villain was an excellent hand reader you should be giving up on the river a lot because your bet on the river should look so much like a 10 or air and its hard to make trips imo [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. i say this becase i feel like from my experience if you had something like AQ and decided to barrel the turn and hit the river, you would still be scared by the turn call and often check behind at (at least this is something i noticed at lower stakes).

that being said, i dont give villain enough credit and i think you should fire away because his hand looks so much like a stubborn mid pair.

[sightless]

what amount do people bet here?