maybe I talk too much

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
Even more of an argument for raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is? huh?

[bdaddy]

The fact that the SB prob doesn't have a flush on the turn makes a raise more important.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that the SB prob doesn't have a flush on the turn makes a raise more important.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're getting confused -- SB probably doesn't have a flush draw when he calls the flop (which is why I was arguing that I don't think I can fold the flop).

his turn bet changes everything entirely and is almost always a flush or a 4/ I haven't run the numbers but considering I have two fours I suspect he's favored to have a flush.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that the SB prob doesn't have a flush on the turn makes a raise more important.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're getting confused -- SB probably doesn't have a flush draw when he calls the flop (which is why I was arguing that I don't think I can fold the flop).

his turn bet changes everything entirely and is almost always a flush or a 4/ I haven't run the numbers but considering I have two fours I suspect he's favored to have a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

If SB has a 4 (the same straight as us) then we still want to raise and charge the other guy to try to hit his spade draw.

[drbk2]

[ QUOTE ]


I don't understand your point about the weak tight not folding to the turn raise. We just made a straight. Do we want to give a flush draw a free card? He makes the straight one time in 5 and beats us. Don't we want to collect a bet the other four times?

The sb is a poor player, could have anything, even aces up. A raise on the turn could get a free showdown if he has a small flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree with this except for the free showdown part. If you are convinced that he doesn't necessarily have a flush here, I think raising the turn is a must for pure value purposes. Also, a weak tight guy will fold a lot of spades for 2 cold but maybe not for 1 bet, right?

I may be making too big a generalization here, but real bad players love to try to check raise the turn here with a made flush because they are bad players. His donk on the turn really looks like two pair or he turned a set, both of which he will never fold if you raise the turn and bet the river.

As played. I would call the river and not be surprised if I was still good.

[Captain R]

[ QUOTE ]
surprised by all the love for raising the turn. I dont think the weak tight guy is going to fold a spade here -- any spades that he does have are weighted towards the bigger ones. I don't think he'll fold Qx, probably not Jx, maybe Tx.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's 9 bets preflop, 12 on the flop (6 BB). On the turn, if you raise, you're offering LP raiser 9:2 or 4.5:1 odds on his flush draw.

Assuming you or SB has a flush and LP has one big spade, this is 44:7 or about 6.5:1 to try to hit his flush draw. I don't think LP is actually going through these calculations in his head, but even he must come to some sort of approximation that he's getting 5:1 or whatever on his flush draw. I find it very hard to call two big bets on the turn without one of the top two spades. I mean, nothing is worse than paying a huge amount of money when you're drawing dead, and most decent players realize this. If he's weak tight, even better. You want him to fold a J/T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

BTW, I probably check the river if SB calls my turn raise. If he 3-bets, I would usually fold.

[Captain R]

[ QUOTE ]

I think you're getting confused -- SB probably doesn't have a flush draw when he calls the flop (which is why I was arguing that I don't think I can fold the flop).

his turn bet changes everything entirely and is almost always a flush or a 4

[/ QUOTE ]

These statements sound contradictory to me. It sounds like your flop read is completely wrong if you suddenly put him on a flush when he bets the turn.