NL200: VB river or induce bluff?

[fooz]

Villain is a regula: 22/15/1.8 - 7K hands.

I'm leaning towards VB given this guy is thinking:
1) likely won't fall for the bluff inducement
2) likely would've raised a better hand at some point
3) likely isn't tricky/agro enough to bluff raise the river

So ...$40 on river?

**

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $202.05
CO: $402.30
Button: $238.80
SB: $283.45
BB: $194.65

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($19, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $14</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($47, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $33</font>, Button calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($113, 2 players)
Hero ?

[ArgusSpets]

nah I wouldnt vb unless he is likely to call a 3rd barrel with KQ here (most regulars sense that TPGK is no good here anymore). So I believe hes not going to call you with worse once more... Id c/c river and maybe Im inducing a bluff or hes betting KQ or whatever.

[fooz]

Hmmmm. I think it's close.

Some more info:
- I have a v high AF of like 6%, and I'm sure he realizes it.
- He has a reasonable (maybe slightly higher) WtSD% of 25%.

I just don't see him calling the Turn bet with anything but KQ or a v good draw (which he's more likely to raise on the Flop). I think I'm getting value out of KQ on the river with a small bet (he's not going to bet it if I check). And he really doesn't seem likely to bluff....though I can't rule it out.

[wrkingtobegreat]

I like betting 40-50.

[Redgrape]

We should bet here everytime, no matter what we have, and probably like $55.

[Steel]

block bet his ass in the end

check the turn (discuss)