CONGRESS 2006 -- breaking together or braking separately?

[ElliotR]

This is an excerpt of a post from NRO's The Corner, in which Kathry Jean Lopez reprints an email from a GOPer that works on Capital Hill:

____________

The following 11 seats are either hopeless or need an act of God:
TX22 (Delay)

AZ-08 (Kolbe)

OH-18 (Padgett)

IN-08 (Hostettler)

PA-10 (Sherwood)

FL-16 (Foley - even though they seem to have optimism there, hard to imagine)

CO-07 Beauprez

NC-11 (Taylor not 100% dead, but close and at financial disadvantage)

IN-02 (Too bad, Chocola was a solid GOP member)

PA-07 Weldon

NY-24 Boehlert Seat

There are a lot of additional seats (about 25) that could go either way, are extremely close and will completely depend on the environment over the next 12 days. ...

... Nothing is for certain. On a bad night, we can lose 30 seats. But, if we have solid performance over the next 13 days and the news cycle doesn't kill us, it could be a night of very close wins maintaining a close majority of 2 or 3.

__________

Let's assume that the above is correct -- i.e., that there are 11 seats that are gone for the GOP, and 25 additional seats that "could go either way". Is it your view that the seats that could go either way will break decisively together in one way or the other, or that it is roughly equivilant to 25 coin flips (such that a dsitribution would be bell curved)? What are your reasons for your answer?

[Berge20]

History shows that tight races tend to break more to one side than another.

[MtSmalls]

All though the quote "all politics is local" is widely heard these days, I believe that most of the "toss up" or "leaning" races will break the same way. Certainly not all, but something closer to 80-20 than 50-50.

I base this on the fact that most of the polls (say what you will there is little other information available) are reflecting a lot of poor opinions on the big national issues, namely the war and the administrations handling of it.

[iron81]

My hunch is that the tight races will break to the GOP. According to www.electoral-vote.com, the polls in the last couple days have been trending toward the GOP. They are now predicted to retain the Senate and there have been good polls for them in the House as well. The only close Senate race that the Dems are currently is in New Jersey and with the gay marriage decision I predict that will go to the GOP as well for 52 GOP senators. I would personally set the over under for number of Democratic seats in the House at this point at 222.

[JCool]

[ QUOTE ]
My hunch is that the tight races will break to the GOP. According to www.electoral-vote.com, the polls in the last couple days have been trending toward the GOP. They are now predicted to retain the Senate and there have been good polls for them in the House as well. The only close Senate race that the Dems are currently is in New Jersey and with the gay marriage decision I predict that will go to the GOP as well for 52 GOP senators. I would personally set the over under for number of Democratic seats in the House at this point at 222.

[/ QUOTE ]

Iron,

Its not often I find myself in agreement with you, but I think your anaylsis here is spot on. Polling in the last few years had tended to under represent GOP turnout on election day, in part because of the GOP turnout machine.

P.S. Could you change your avatar to something less partisan?

[niss]

As a NJ resident, I would be surprised if the "gay marriage" decision has much of an effect (if any) on our senatorial race.

[bisonbison]

The house is still trending democrat. The senate is rougher for dems. I think they'll take Ohio and NJ, but MO and TN are tossups and VA is very unlikely.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...c_ballots.html

[CharlieDontSurf]

[ QUOTE ]
My hunch is that the tight races will break to the GOP. According to www.electoral-vote.com, the polls in the last couple days have been trending toward the GOP. They are now predicted to retain the Senate and there have been good polls for them in the House as well. The only close Senate race that the Dems are currently is in New Jersey and with the gay marriage decision I predict that will go to the GOP as well for 52 GOP senators. I would personally set the over under for number of Democratic seats in the House at this point at 222.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait till Wends...the polling will start shifting back to Dems.

House goes to Dems
Senate stays with Rep by a 1 or 2 seat majority.

I think the two key factors will either be
1. The whole...Rep turnout machine may be a bit off this year due to many moderate or even conservative republicans being turned off by Iraq and Bush that they simply abstain from voting.

2. Strong turnout for Dems and Dems comes out ahead of reps when it comes to women and indep/moderate voters