Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if entity thought this player would fold 45/74, i think check raising has to be the best line. i just don't see most players folding. i'm leaning toward check fold in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather take my 4:1 on a bet than check and hope he checks behind 97 7T or something. I think you show a strong, immediate profit by betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's break this down into the three major cases:

Weak made hand (most likely 4x)

Betting costs you 1 BB.

If you check (intending to raise), let's say that there's a 25% chance that he is weak and checks behind. The other 75% of the time, he bets. There is a 10% chance that he folds a better hand to your check raise.

So the EV of this play is

25% ... 0 BB
67% ... -2 BB
8% ... +5 BB

Betting EV: -1.00 BB
C/R EV: -0.94 BB

Missed draw that has > showdown value than yours

I would imagine that a bet folds out his winner at least 85% of the time.

85% ... +4 BB
15% ... -1 BB

I would guess that he bets if you check around 55% of the time, and folds to a raise around 90% of the time.

45% ... 0 BB
6% ... -2 BB
49% ... +5 BB

Betting EV: +3.25 BB
C/R EV: +2.33 BB

Missed draw that has < showdown value than yours

A bet picks up the pot 100% of the time.

A check results in a bet 2/3 of the time; he always folds to your raise, and you pick up an extra bet in the process by inducing a bluff.

Note that I'm ignoring the case of a bluff raise in both cases.

Betting EV: +4.00 BB
C/R EV: +4.67 BB

I would guess that his range of hands is distributed about 45%/20%/35% between these three cases. If that is the case, then a bet shows a 1.60 BB profit, and a check-raise a 1.68 BB profit. That's too close to call, considering how many simplifying assumptions I've made here.

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
I would guess that his range of hands is distributed about 45%/20%/35% between these three cases. If that is the case, then a bet shows a 1.60 BB profit, and a check-raise a 1.68 BB profit. That's too close to call, considering how many simplifying assumptions I've made here.

[/ QUOTE ]

And, under your assumptions, the check/fold line has you never beating a better hand, but villain checks a worse hand behind you 11% of the time (35%*33%), giving you the 4 BB pot and average profit of .46 BB.

Great thread yall.

B.

[The Bryce]

Nice post, Nate.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
nate,

i would never fold a 4 to this river check raise unless he had pwned me multiple times in the past with a good hand and this line. assuming i have only a stat read on entity, i would bluff 3-bet the river fairly often if i picked up on any hint of bs, which would probably be often because realistically, this line reeks of bluff.

if entity thought this player would fold 45/74, i think check raising has to be the best line. i just don't see most players folding. i'm leaning toward check fold in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I don't understand is why you say this line reeks of bluff. I think betting with KQ is a pretty fair amount worse than checking with KQ, assuming I didn't 3bet the flop, which I don't always do (probably 65/35 or 60/40 with no history).

It's easy to say the line reeks of bluff when you know I have J9, but I think checking is the best play here with the majority of hands, given how [censored] strange opponent's line is (and consequently how difficult it is to put him on an exact hand).

Rob

[milesdyson]

i didnt say checking with KQ would be a bad play. i just would not expect someone to play KQ like this all the way through for obvious reasons. the majority play would seem to me to be 3-betting the flop, so you're already less likely to have a Q when you just call and check the turn. then, while checking may be better on the river, i still think the majority of players bet it if they have a Q. so these two things happening together would give me the idea that it was fairly unlikely for you to have an actual good hand. and since the only hands you can really play like this are good hands and bluffs (there's no point in check raising a medium strength hand), this line from most good players will often be a bluff.

[StupidAcesSigh]

The thing is this isn't exactly a draw heavy flop. the most likely thing that happened is villian bet a crappy pair on the river, checked the turn cause his hand was weak / induce something / catch up, then bet the river hoping an ace would call.

[The Funky Llama]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is this isn't exactly a draw heavy flop

[/ QUOTE ]

it isn't?

[helpmeout]

You checked to him twice and he'd expect you to think that he was bluffing with complete air so why wouldnt he valuebet A high sometimes?

Some TAGs do weird [censored] and you have to account for them not playing perfectly.