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#11
08-21-2006, 04:38 AM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
As long as you agree with me that villain is insta-calling with any pair and any ace high, I like it just fine.
-DeathDonkey 
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#12
08-21-2006, 06:00 AM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
I'm not a fan you pretty much hope that he has JT or K high.
He wont fold a pair because that river card is a blank. His likely calling range here is a weak ace a pair of 2s or another weak pair. I think check/calling is better if you think he will bluff at this enough.
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#13
08-21-2006, 11:22 AM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
[ QUOTE ]
As long as you agree with me that villain is insta-calling with any pair and any ace high, I like it just fine. -DeathDonkey [/ QUOTE ] I agree that he'll call with a pair but what A-high hand is he betting on the river expecting you to call? He knows his turn check will get looked up by A-high and since he didn't 3-bet his A preflop (if he has one) it is probably not a very good one and a one he would like to SD cheaply. So unless hero has been calling him down with K-high I don't think he has an A here.
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#14
08-21-2006, 11:52 AM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
[ QUOTE ]
It's 2AM and the board totally isn't what I thought it was. I still don't expect BB to check behind the turn with anything better than K high with reuglarity (maybe 45). [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure about this part. If hero has been c/r a lot of turns, I can see villain checking through a pair when the flush draw appears.
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#15
08-21-2006, 12:09 PM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I could, and would, play KQ exactly like this the times that I dont' 3bet the flop. [/ QUOTE ] The question is, does he know this? Can you really assume that he does? I think that you've played this thing weirdly enough to cause him to reevaluate the showdown value of his hand, then call with some stuff he might have thought he was bluffing with. The stuff he WAS bluffing with (the busted straight draws), I think he might threebet some nontrivial % of the time.
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#16
08-21-2006, 01:32 PM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
i like it
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#17
08-21-2006, 01:37 PM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
[ QUOTE ]
His likely calling range here is a weak ace a pair of 2s or another weak pair. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think he'd bet ace high? I think he'd probably call with some weak pairs, but I'm not sure which ones; his line is so strange for a pair (excepting maybe 74/54) that I don't know if he'll have much more than air or a busted straight draw very often. Maybe I should just check-call; I only need to be good 17% to show a profit. Rob
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#18
08-21-2006, 01:38 PM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
[ QUOTE ]
The stuff he WAS bluffing with (the busted straight draws), I think he might threebet some nontrivial % of the time. [/ QUOTE ] The thought that any TAG 3bets some nontrivial amount of the time with a busted draw, to me, seems to be overestimating the tendencies of this game. It's aggressive, but it's no where near that aggressive. Rob
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#19
08-21-2006, 01:41 PM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
when he bets, how often do you think you are good?
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#20
08-21-2006, 02:44 PM
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Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
Holy hell did I manage to blather on and say a lot about nothing last night. Anyways, the math here's easy, so it's a distribution question: when he bets the river what do we think he has what %s of the time? Anyways, check-calling isn't an option.
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