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#1
05-05-2007, 01:49 AM
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200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
Villain is 27/18/3 over a solid sample. We were on a couple tables together and both tables I had been card dead, so I look very nitty. I don't have much personal experience with this player, just datamined hands.
Comments on flop/turn. Call river? Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) <font color="black">Hero (SB): $200</font> BB: $60 UTG: $219.95 CO: $199.20 BTN: $247.60 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players) 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $7</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $20 <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($56) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $40</font>, BTN calls $40 <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($136) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, BTN checks <font color="black">River:</font> ($136) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $65</font>, Hero 
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#3
05-05-2007, 02:44 AM
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Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
I think it's a call. Definitely for this much.
KJ bets the Turn. AT and JT would be pretty much folding the flop. So the only hand he's he's likely to have that beats you now is QJ. So there's a good chance you're ahead, you've shown a lot of weakness on Turn/River making him think he can take the pot (which is the value in not betting the River). And you're completely priced into it, as strong as your hand is. I'd even call a bit of a larger bet. Call, if he's got QJ so be it.
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#5
05-05-2007, 08:24 AM
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Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
fold you dont beat anything... its a 3bet pot. like at best you're splitting. why does no one see this? like i understand its blind vs button but i dont think we beat a hell of a lot and the river really looks like it wants a call.
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#7
05-05-2007, 11:14 AM
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Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the turn pretty strong, if I get a call then I play the river cautiously. You could have possibly avoided this decision altogether [/ QUOTE ]
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#8
05-05-2007, 11:20 AM
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Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would have bet the turn pretty strong, if I get a call then I play the river cautiously. You could have possibly avoided this decision altogether [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] anyone shove turn ? cus if we bet the turn that's pretty much what we're doing on any river
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#9
05-05-2007, 11:51 AM
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Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
[ QUOTE ]
fold you dont beat anything... its a 3bet pot. like at best you're splitting. why does no one see this? like i understand its blind vs button but i dont think we beat a hell of a lot and the river really looks like it wants a call. [/ QUOTE ] This is pretty close to accurate. A basic range of JJ+/AK has us completely owned. Of course he has other hands, but quite a few of them own us also (KJ/JQ/44/55). However I'm not sure villian "wants a call" on the river - it could be a block bet also and I think we should fold due to his hand range, but it's tough to do with these odds but if I'm playing well I would fold this.
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#10
05-05-2007, 05:07 PM
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Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] fold you dont beat anything... its a 3bet pot. like at best you're splitting. why does no one see this? like i understand its blind vs button but i dont think we beat a hell of a lot and the river really looks like it wants a call. [/ QUOTE ] This is pretty close to accurate. A basic range of JJ+/AK has us completely owned. Of course he has other hands, but quite a few of them own us also (KJ/JQ/44/55). However I'm not sure villian "wants a call" on the river - it could be a block bet also and I think we should fold due to his hand range, but it's tough to do with these odds but if I'm playing well I would fold this. [/ QUOTE ] You thinks that's close to accurate? I think it's well out. I personally think you and Kayfish are reading "he's gonna be too strong here" without working out ranges, and why. Of the hands you've said that own us QJ is the only hand that is likely to not bet the Turn. There's not a lot of value in him not betting the Turn, unless he thinks we're a habitual river bluffer, and given the prior action we're either strong enough to call here, or not bluffing. And it's a button steal, calling a 3B in position, from a 27/18. The guy does not need to have JJ+/AK. Not at all. There's a lot of hands he could decide to call in position with here. (As for it being a blocking bet, it's on the river in position. It's either a value bet or a bluff. That's all.) In short saying "you can't beat anything, you can't call" seems wrong because 1. We beat everything he can seem to have played this way except QJ. 2. We've Cbetted and then switched off on the Turn and River. He has every reason to think you can't call a bet. 3. By checking the Turn/River we are under-repping our hand and essentially inducing a bluff. You shouldn't be doing that with a hand that is strong enough to bet, and then not calling. Especially to a non-large bet. I think you're giving people a licence to steal otherwise. So, hands that would have played this way we're behind QJs. Hands that could well have played this way we're ahead of 88-TTish, J/T9s (and any floats). And we're tied with AK and giving up half the pot to (for a half pot bet)
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