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#1
09-25-2007, 03:11 PM
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Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
My thoughts are that there must be enough data collected to determine the legitimacy of poker sites.
I am interested in organizing the effort. However, I need your help, since we have to start collecting and analyzing data, and reaching a conclusion. Preferably, I would like to leave it up to the mathmeticians, statisticians and computer geeks to make this determination. I have spent the last twenty five years as a financial and operational auditor; so perhaps I can contribute in some form to this. So let's chat on here to discuss its feasibility. Please don't start with the sarcastic comments. I am a winning player too, so I believe that most sites are legit, if they want to stay in business. However, I have my suspicions about this industry as well, so I think this sort of study may produce some surprising results. Any thoughts? We have some of the most intelligent people here, so let's hear it... 
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#2
09-25-2007, 03:22 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
I like the idea to a certain extent. It would be nice to put together all of the numbers and either shut up the naysayers (although sadly this probably wouldn't work), or discover if there is anything odd going on anywhere.
The big hurdle, though, would be that people won't want to give up their HHs. The only thing I could see working would be to decide on some key stats, and have players submit just those stats.
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#3
09-25-2007, 03:28 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
don't forget there are a lot of people out there with a lot of datamined hands. no reason for people to be worried about submitting those to the project. i have a couple million or so i can send.
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#4
09-25-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
don't forget there are a lot of people out there with a lot of datamined hands. no reason for people to be worried about submitting those to the project. i have a couple million or so i can send. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but there's still the issue of one person now having in their possession the data of tens (hundreds?) of millions of hands. If we all have datamined hands on one another, are we excited about one person having all that data? Plus, if the project were to become that huge, would PT be able to handle a big enough database?
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#5
09-25-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
I like the idea to a certain extent. It would be nice to put together all of the numbers and either shut up the naysayers (although sadly this probably wouldn't work), or discover if there is anything odd going on anywhere. The big hurdle, though, would be that people won't want to give up their HHs. The only thing I could see working would be to decide on some key stats, and have players submit just those stats. [/ QUOTE ] I do not think the hand histories would be the problem at this stage.I think the problem is to estimate the scope of the work. The sample size would have to run into hundred of millions of hands, from all of the poker sites. However, I am not a statistician, so I could be off a few google hands or so...
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#6
09-25-2007, 03:36 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] don't forget there are a lot of people out there with a lot of datamined hands. no reason for people to be worried about submitting those to the project. i have a couple million or so i can send. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but there's still the issue of one person now having in their possession the data of tens (hundreds?) of millions of hands. If we all have datamined hands on one another, are we excited about one person having all that data? Plus, if the project were to become that huge, would PT be able to handle a big enough database? [/ QUOTE ] I can still only multi table five games at a time, so I figure I can't get too much info about how to play better from your hands, I am just too damn busy...
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#7
09-25-2007, 03:40 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
Well, let's see what the general reaction here is (if there is one). I could be wrong, but I suspect the majority of posters will not want to be sending their hand histories in to just anybody. At the very least, this will likely be the case more often with the big winners (no I'm not one of them [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), which will skew your data somewhat.
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#8
09-25-2007, 04:08 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
The biggest obstacle I see to this is that for people who believe the sites are fair there is no upside in working on this. The people who think the sites are rigged are too dense to do the math.
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#9
09-25-2007, 04:35 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
The biggest obstacle I see to this is that for people who believe the sites are fair there is no upside in working on this. The people who think the sites are rigged are too dense to do the math. [/ QUOTE ] The people who believe the sites are fair (as I do for the most part) have a great incentive. That is, to ensure that the sites do in fact offer a game equivalent in all aspects of live poker except for showing up at the casino.
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#10
09-25-2007, 04:48 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
You also have the problem that there is nothing to compare it to. The only thing to compare it to is statistically info. I would imagine if you took a million hands from a B&M it would be off INSAINLY LARGE from what it should do to human error. That being said the randomness is thought of as perfect there.(by the people that dont like online randomizers)
In short this is a decent idea however ill keep all my HH to myself.
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