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  #1  
Old 11-30-2007, 01:35 AM
David Sklansky David Sklansky is offline
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Default 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

If you randomly choose a present day 40 year old American and a present day 65 year old, who is more likely to reach 90?
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  #2  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:01 AM
POKEROMGLOL POKEROMGLOL is offline
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Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

ill answer if you rate my dinner david
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  #3  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:04 AM
David Sklansky David Sklansky is offline
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Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

You cooked me dinner?
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Old 11-30-2007, 02:07 AM
POKEROMGLOL POKEROMGLOL is offline
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Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post13180492
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  #5  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:51 AM
kevin017 kevin017 is offline
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Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

these seem about equal, perhaps a small edge to the 65 year old.
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  #6  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:57 AM
ut2010 ut2010 is offline
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Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

ugh not health and fitness too.
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  #7  
Old 11-30-2007, 03:26 AM
KingGordy KingGordy is offline
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Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

I choose the 65 year old.
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  #8  
Old 11-30-2007, 11:58 AM
AZK AZK is offline
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Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

40
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  #9  
Old 11-30-2007, 12:52 PM
Yobz Yobz is offline
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Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

Would answers change if you say 20 year old versus 65 year old?

Clearly this boils down to one thing:
Probability of dying between the ages of 40 and 65 versus the medical advancements made in 25 years.

I'll take medical advancements in 25 years, I think the probability of dying b/w 40 and 65 is pretty small.

I'll way favor 20 in a 20 vs 65 to reach 90.
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  #10  
Old 11-30-2007, 12:54 PM
Wolfram Wolfram is offline
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Default Re: 40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

I imagine this could be solved mathematically.

Let f(x) be a function of the average life expectancy of an american male, where x is the year.

Let g(x) be the death rate for american males in one year where x is the age.

Find out where the two functions intersect. If it's > 40 years then you chose the 65 year old.

This is probably wrong and oversimplified but someone who's better at math should be able to solve this.
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