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  #11  
Old 11-26-2007, 11:28 PM
shaundeeb shaundeeb is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

the bubble isn't over yet guys it will be AFTER this hand not during that is why it's a fold since yhou have 0fe
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  #12  
Old 11-26-2007, 11:47 PM
mkind0516 mkind0516 is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

If you're playing to make $100, fold.
If you're playing to potentially win, ship it in.
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  #13  
Old 11-26-2007, 11:48 PM
selurah selurah is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

You're pissing money away if you don't fold this.
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  #14  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:11 AM
Weezey Baby Weezey Baby is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

absolute push especially on the bubble with the best hand...play to win
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  #15  
Old 11-27-2007, 03:35 AM
omg im l337 omg im l337 is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

[ QUOTE ]
the bubble isn't over yet guys it will be AFTER this hand not during that is why it's a fold since yhou have 0fe

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't notice that, thanks.
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  #16  
Old 11-27-2007, 04:22 AM
mlagoo mlagoo is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

[ QUOTE ]
If you're playing to make $100, fold.
If you're playing to potentially win, ship it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

arent you a professional?
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  #17  
Old 11-27-2007, 05:48 AM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're playing to make $100, fold.
If you're playing to potentially win, ship it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

arent you a professional?

[/ QUOTE ]

Srsly, you gotta folds yo, 100% of the time you make what, $300 if you fold, plus when you cash for more

Even against a very generous opening range you aren't gonna be more than 60% here to win the hand
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  #18  
Old 11-27-2007, 06:12 AM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

BTW, if this is an 11r, I'm shipping it every time.

Why? Because I piss on $70 and I'm not wasting 4 more hours playing the $11r only to get sucked out on at the FT bubble like I always do
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  #19  
Old 11-27-2007, 08:57 AM
Bonified Bonified is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

Interesting range of responses. I thought this one might polarise opinion.

What actually happened was I thought that because the other guy had busted before me, I was good for 27th, so I shoved. Villain had 97hh and flopped a flush. I'm like "oh well at least I get the cash ... " [sees 28th in Lobby] "skjdfnkvnv skjdnksn jdfnvkvmdn fvkfjdnd,mf vfv". So that was a lesson learned. But when I worked it out, I think it's still a shove anyway, or at least, for it to be a shove, we need to be 57% against his range if the BB folds, let's call it 60% just in case the BB wakes up with something huge. And I can't construct a sensible open-raising range that includes 97s but is > 40% against AQs. Frankly in the villain's position I would have been tempted to raise with any 2, and I think a lot of other players would too.

Without going through the whole calculation, 27th is $320, the total prize pool $46,150 and there are 1.458 million chips in play. My basic premise is that if we make the money, this is worth $320 + (our chips / total chips) * (prize pool - (27 * 320)). Given that even if we call and win, we'll only have 2.5% of the chips in play, I think that chip EV ~ $ EV after dishing out the $320s. The real question is, is this assumption valid ? I see no reason why it isn't, and I've done some Monte Carlo simulation this morning that backs it up too.
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  #20  
Old 11-27-2007, 09:35 AM
Yoshi63 Yoshi63 is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

I dunno why everyone's so extreme with their opinions on this. These spots are difficult to calculate, and it's probably pretty close.

I figure if you shove, you're probably surviving ~60% of the time. So 40% of the time you cost yourself $320, or $128 on average. Earlier in the tournament this would be about 3900 worth of chips, but once we pass thru the money the value of each chip goes down about 18% (due to money distribution). So you need to have a +cEV of 4930 to make this neutral.

With 60% equity in a 34400 pot you're just good enough to shove, profiting 5640. But this is an optimistic figure, since it assumes nobody wakes up with a monster. Factor that in and it's very borderline.

So I think it's sufficient to say that this is really close.
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