Knowing your math. Basic draws.

[Mike MacIntosh]

Hand 1 - Fold. We are behind here more than 85% of the time, which means we will have to hit our draw or bluff him off the best hand (which is unlikely).

On the turn, we are getting 3 to 1 odds on our FD (4 to 1). Villain has $165 left after he bets the turn (120 of which we can win on the river). We should be able to get another $40 out of him most of the time, when we hit on the river to break even.

However the river card is going to give us a second best hand a certain % of the time where we will lose a big pot to the Villain (nut flush vs 2nd nuts, boat vs flush). When we do have the best hand (hitting our draw) we stand to get very little action from the villain, because he will have a weak made hand most of the time (TPGK). We must also factor in the times when he checks the river, and we bluff him of the best hand/or bluff off our chips (which happens often in these spots).

This is a pretty marginal spot. Calling and folding are both fine IMO. Its more a question of playing style than anything. I would just like more information on my opponent to use against him on the river (ex. how often can I take the pot away on the river) before I make the turn call.

[Wolfram]

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we arent even close to 3:1 if he has a set or the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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The same logic applies on the flop. Would you fold there?

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We have added info on the turn. The bet sizes are also bigger on the turn making our mistake (if we're making one) bigger.

[Paul Thomson]

1) I prefer a fold. We aren't drawing to the nuts. And I doubt that if he checks the river that we can fold him off an aces.

2)
- Sub Q: if he 3-bets us, I'm folding. I hate having AQo oop in a 3-way pot. if I do call, it's with the intention of check-raising all-in most any flop.
- I'm double barrelling the turn.
- If I check and the villain bets 25, I'm probably folding because I doubt all our over cards are clean. And it's hard to extract money from oop.

3) I'm raising the turn. He either has a monster or a weak hand. He didn't call the flop with AK and we definiely could have AK here. so the king didn't help him. if he had a monster, he'd likely play it faster on the flop.

[Mike MacIntosh]

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#2. We are UTG and pick up AQo, suits irrelevant. We (200, unknown to these players) make it 8, button ("defends his button religiously" but a tag/lag with 245) calls.
Sub Q: If this player 3bets to 25 total, what's our standard play?
Any case, flop (~19) comes T J 4, we bet 12, villain calls. Turn (43) comes a blank, 3. What's our play? If we check, villain bets 25. What's our play then?

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Sub Q: Assuming he is 24/20 and I have been playing a LAG game, I call and play a flop. However, I will be folding in most other situations.

Flop: He calls our c-bet. Assuming we do not have a read on his post-flop play I am c/fing this the rest of the way unless my hand improves or a scare card arrives (King in this case).

Turn: 3, meh. I am done with this hand. I have little FE if any against a J at this point, and he will most likely call in position with a T and draw as well.

[BobboFitos]

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In hand #1, how often would we guess that we're up against Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and drawing dead? 2-4%? Is that enough to lean our decision?

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Very good question and somethingthat will be leaked in my answers. It certainly is a factor to consider; in fact, for this reason many flush draws would be folds. Is the K-high one a fold for this reason? Perhaps [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[BobboFitos]

Another note: (I have class until midday and I expect I'll give my thoughts then, some people have the exact right answers for each question but no one has gotten them "all" right =) ) Why do people think the nit has a flush draw in hand 3? I am very clear on his range here, so there are 3 combos of suited aces he could have, (AT, AJ, AQ), when I say his range "could" be wider due to UTG's presence, it's possible (like cold calling AK and not reraising, for example) but this is also unlikely. So on the turn assume he has a flush draw less then 10% of the time. Although his line would be somewhat consistant with KQs, AQs, AJs, and ATs.

[Fat Nicky]

i notice a lot of people saying to fold hand 1 because even if we hit our flush, we won't win the pot all the time (lose against higher flush or if the 3rd [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] pairs the board).

My initial reaction is that those that have this idea are over-estimating the amount of time we lose when we hit...or is it that I am under-estimating???

[Unknown Soldier]

1: call, could have a lower flush here too, more often then a higher flush anyway (6 a-high flushes - im assuming he raises ATs+ and 6 scs 45 - QJ adding one-gappers this makes more lower flush draws) I think we're getting the odds against his range


2: I think the standard would be c/f but double-barreling and cr can be fine sometimes, depends on the dynamics imo (obv wrong since op has a definite answer, but w/e)


3: his line would suggest a pair 99+ but if you say he is a nit, how much of a nit is he? How agro is he post flop? Would he fire with 99+ on the turn? Would he slow play a set on the flop? I guess he could be trying to bring along the donkey with his set, but it is very drawy. I don't think we can answer this w/o that knowledge. If his range is 99-JJ (maybe 77) and 22/66/88 (and 10% flush draws, right?) then I shove. Good FE against his range

[rockusteady]

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3) Were most likely behind here to Kx here. We have ~17% chance to pike our OESD on river. I'd fold here... (Don't be a fish!) [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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What king does the nit call the flop with? Even if he did hit top pair on the turn (which I won't grant anyways), but lets say that he did, we've still got pretty good FE against a hand like KQ or even AK sometimes.

Most nits are not willing to stack off with only one pair.

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So whats your play here? Push?

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yup.

[David Nicoson]

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Another note: (I have class until midday and I expect I'll give my thoughts then, some people have the exact right answers for each question but no one has gotten them "all" right =) ) Why do people think the nit has a flush draw in hand 3? I am very clear on his range here, so there are 3 combos of suited aces he could have, (AT, AJ, AQ), when I say his range "could" be wider due to UTG's presence, it's possible (like cold calling AK and not reraising, for example) but this is also unlikely. So on the turn assume he has a flush draw less then 10% of the time. Although his line would be somewhat consistant with KQs, AQs, AJs, and ATs.

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I find the range a little nonsensical. What kind of nit calls a raise OOP with ATo? He's your nit, so I guess we should let you pick.

After the turn bet, it seems less likely that he has a small overpair. Otherwise, the king scares him. His relatively small bet indicates to me that he's not concerned about being outdrawn by a small flush draw. He has to have some reason to call the flop bet, but not enough of hand that he wants to raise. Therefore, a suited king.