Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-17-2007, 08:57 PM
maletaja maletaja is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 79
Default Is my calc OK?

I play lots of MTT with low M i did some push calc.
My stack is 10000(blinds 800-400,no antes)
I am in CT pos in KQ.So 3 random hand after me.
Question is push or fold?
Accoridbg to pokerstove random hand that has 99+AJ+,is apr 4-5%.So in total there is 15% change that smb calls my shove with hand.

I got cEV +576.As a result of this it is quite strong action move.Is it correct?
Or is it CEV more higher when i do open raise for example 2000 and fold after reraise?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-17-2007, 10:21 PM
sixhigh sixhigh is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Highway 61
Posts: 1,778
Default Re: Is my calc OK?

Difficult to figure what you mean...

If i get it correct your in the CO with KQo, it's folded to you and you assume the players behind you will call your shove only with 99+, AJ+ and everyone has you covered. In this case you will get called approx. 15% of the time ( 1-(1-5.4%)^3) (ignoring the cases where two or more people call your shove). Against this range you will have ~71% equity. So the EV for this move will be:
EV = 85% * (+1200) + 15% * (29% * (+10800) + 71%*(-10000)) = +425.

But I doubt 99+, AJ+ are realistic ranges. And whether raise/folding is better than shoving we'd need some more informations on the other players. How aggressive are they, i.e. how likely is it they resteal light if you open to 2,000? ...
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:34 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.