FTP 30/60: C/R'ed on river

[SparkyDog]

I made a post earlier but deleted and thought about the hand some more after I saw a few guys say call. But I didn't change my mind really. So I might be missing something, but I think you're in pretty bad shape here.

I don't mind your call/call/raise line except I'd want a better kicker since I think he'd realize the line when he saw it, and fold most worse made hands that he bet. It's pretty hard for him to suspect a bluff too, since it'd require you call-bluffing on a ragged ace high board vs. PF 3bettor, and we all know how profitable that is. If there's a street to raise here I think it's the flop.

Once he checkraises the river you're relying on a 3rd level bluff with a hand that's been good enough to 3bet PF and bet the flop and turn. I suppose it's possible he took another shot at making you fold on the turn, and then yet another 2BB shot on the river, but I don't think you're good 1/10 times here.

Another thing I was wondering was what Phil would be check/calling on this river. I don't see much value in a river bet honestly, because I think phil would just value bet anything he'd call with. There's just nothing that you could get to the river with that you're bluffing with, that I see. So I think if you're going to call a checkraise, then betting the river might not even be +EV.

[geormiet]

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So I think if you're going to call a checkraise, then betting the river might not even be +EV.

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This is an interesting river decision against a thinking player who views you as a thinking player.

if three's no tilt or metagame involved (there often is though) I think checking behind is not nearly as ugly as it seems.

[mmcd]

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if three's no tilt or metagame involved (there often is though) I think checking behind is not nearly as ugly as it seems.


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After giving it a little thought, I don't think there is any hand I would check/call this river with. If I check here, I am either check/raising or check/folding 100% of the time. So, at least against me, betting this river is really bad with anything other than 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a hand that beats AQ

[SteveL91]

One big reply:

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Not once did I consider making this play with a hand like 88.

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I've thought of it and done it a couple times. It hasn't worked a single time. But, I sure felt smart for thinking about it. Sorta. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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I dont know you Steve, but youre probably a good winning player...

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The jury is most definitely still out on that one. I appreciate the sentiment, but I'm still not sure whether or not I'm in over my head. We'll see.

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Wouldn't you cap 77+ in this spot pf?

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85-90% of the time, yes. Sometimes I end up just calling, but it depends. If I've been capping frequently, then I'd definitely cap 77+; if I haven't capped at all, I might be more inclined to just call. Then there are the times where I know I'm against someone who's capable of going off post-flop, so I try and pick-up the extra value post-flop. And sometimes I just feel like being sneaky.

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I don't mind your call/call/raise line except I'd want a better kicker since I think he'd realize the line when he saw it...

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Normally, I'd agree about the kicker. However, I felt his 3-betting range was wide enough to justify the line. Also, I should note that I didn't plan on call/call/raise; it was only after the flop landed that I settled on that. If the flop had been slightly different, i.e. containing a flush draw, I would have played the hand differently.


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and fold most worse made hands that he bet.

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I think this is a fine result. I can't quantify it (and it may be non-existant), but I think there's a lot of inherent value in winning pots without a showdown. In a game of incomplete information, I would think that any information you can avoid sharing works in your favor.

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So I think if you're going to call a checkraise, then betting the river might not even be +EV.

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I honestly hadn't even thought of this until you posted (so, I'm glad you decided to chime in). After thinking about it, I think you may have a very valid point.

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This is an interesting river decision against a thinking player who views you as a thinking player.



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Well, I don't know whether he actually views me as a thinking player, or just an over-aggro donk.

Thanks for all the input, guys. I'm glad I ended up posting this hand, as it's given me something to think about, namely how to balance the possible value in taking down pots without a showdown vs. putting myself in the position to get outplayed, which I clearly was this hand.

Thanks again,
Steve

[kurosh]

This is always, always, a better hand. I hate folding here, but I think it's the right play.

[Yads]

Your line is almost always a weak ace or small pocket pair so this check raise is almost never a bluff.

[rubbrband]

I would have raised for information flop or turn. there are no draws so you don't have to worry about a flush or straight draw 3 bet scaring you off. The raise is also good because 1)your hand might very well be better than his and 2)A turn raise represents a strength and might make him think twice about raising you on the river.