bottom two theory

AZK · #1 12-30-2005, 05:38 PM

100xBB stacks, you open on the button with 98o, unknown sb calls.

Flop T98 two tone

You bet pot, get check minraised. Is it better to just shove, or wait for the turn and shove.

What if the flop is T98r?

I was discussing this with another 2+2er who brought up good points of 100 awful turn cards etc...I was thinking more along the lines of when this happens (all in on flop) the person probably has decent equity 80% of the time and has you smoked 20% of the time = not fun?

What do you guys think?

Parlay Slow · #2 12-30-2005, 05:45 PM

I come down on the equity side of the argument. The guy basically always has a made hand that has you crushed or some kind of nice draw. Peel a safe turn card.

creedofhubris · #3 12-30-2005, 06:42 PM

I think it's best to call and play poker. You have position, might as well use it.

It would be very unlikely for someone to bluff at this board, because it's so connected it's probably hit you too. Even if he's semibluffing, there are many, many possible hands that have 50% or better equity on the flop against you, so pushing is just not profitable, because sometimes he will have you crushed and sometimes it will merely be a coin flip; not a good situation to be in.

moneyshot · #4 12-30-2005, 10:50 PM

let me add another thought here. let's say you call. I rag hits the turn and you face another pot sized bet.

creedofhubris · #5 12-31-2005, 12:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
let me add another thought here. let's say you call. I rag hits the turn and you face another pot sized bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's when you decide if he has it or not.

If he does, you fold.

And if he doesn't, you push.

Roman · #6 12-31-2005, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
let me add another thought here. let's say you call. I rag hits the turn and you face another pot sized bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's when you decide if he has it or not.

If he does, you fold.

And if he doesn't, you push.

[/ QUOTE ]

POTY

Roman · #7 12-31-2005, 01:36 AM

this is tough against an unknown. I usually wait for the turn,for the reasons stated and because scare cards can actually win you the pot even when you are behind.

flustraighted · #8 12-31-2005, 03:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
this is tough against an unknown. I usually wait for the turn,for the reasons stated and because scare cards can actually win you the pot even when you are behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given that hes OOP, perhaps a scare card on the turn will slow him down enough for either option of:

a) representing a bigger hand (ie. He holds 67 and the turn is a J or Q)

b) He makes the mistake of checking (perhaps wrongfully slowplaying or legitimately concerned of a bigger hand) and you check along for the free cards, hopefully making the boat on the river.

c) Trying to get as cheap of a showdown as possible.

If he pushes me enough though, I'm out of there. Way too many hands already have me beat, might catch up to beat me and/or I'm drawing dead. I like to be the one dictating the action, and with a hand like bottom two, even if I'm in position, I don't feel comfortable enough with the situation (extremely dangerous board) to do so as aggressively as I'd like. Unknown variables such as table image (his and mine), stack size and his proceeding turn action will probably make the decision for me.

KaneKungFu123 · #9 12-31-2005, 11:18 AM

why would you ever shove the flop against a non lunatic, and even against a lunatic, you want to see a brick on the turn.

NLfool · #10 12-31-2005, 12:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
why would you ever shove the flop against a non lunatic, and even against a lunatic, you want to see a brick on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it, if any sane player calls here we're beat. In a 10 handed game if you get called here and you're holding top 2 on a T98 board and get called for 100BB+ I think you're toast.