Need advice - What is the +$eV play here.

[JFJB]

From yesterday evening $100+9 deep stack on Stars (19h00). Final table down to 7. In terms on read, players have been aggressive with no one out of line and I think the biggest read was that I had been more of a nit than anything else.

PokerStars Game #10192894639: Tournament #51170692, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (4000/8000) - 2007/05/30 - 23:33:49 (ET)
Table '51170692 6' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: BoxingDayGrl (83916 in chips)
Seat 3: badboypony (157390 in chips)
Seat 5: circuslover (222451 in chips)
Seat 6: rooperj (143279 in chips)
Seat 7: JFJB (155906 in chips)
Seat 8: hersco1 (109030 in chips)
Seat 9: MangosPapa (184028 in chips)
hersco1: posts small blind 4000
MangosPapa: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JFJB [9d 9c]
BoxingDayGrl: folds
badboypony: folds
circuslover: folds
rooperj: folds
JFJB: raises 17000 to 25000
hersco1: raises 83630 to 108630 and is all-in
MangosPapa: folds

It is back to me. Pay out looks something like this.

1 : $8800
2 : $5500
3 : $3700
4 : $2800
5 : $1900
6 : $1500
7 : $1200

If I call an win I get the chip lead with over 300k and we are down to 6, if I call and loose I am left with 46k. What play will yield more money in the end?

[Soulman]

You gotta call here. Even if you've been a nit, people still don't believe button raisers have a good hand and will resteal. Even with a middle resteal range like 22+,A6s+,KJs+,JTs+,A9o+,KQo this is more than good enough for a call (56% w plenty of money in the pot).

If you want to do real calcs, look at an ICM calculator and do it yourself [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[luckychewy]

at this point the pay jumps are so small relative to what they are later on, and while having 300k as opposed to 130k(if you fold) will be helpful, it won't necessarily lock up 3rd place or anything because the stacks will still be reasonably distributed. for starters, i would definitely raise 2.5x or thereabouts to induce a resteal because it is a button vs blind situation and peoples ranges should be fairly wide. making this big a raise is a larger % of your stack and should make people fold more than you want them to with AXs, smaller pairs, etc.

you need ~36.6% equity to make this call break even cEV wise and like i said before i don't think $EV plays too big a role here, if one at all. i gave a pretty tight range(imo) for the villain here, 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo, and vs. this range you are 48.5% so it's a really ez and super +cEV call. even if he's shoving as tight as 88+, AJs+, AJo+ you are still 43.8% and it's still a really ez call. even if he's shoving JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ you are still 39.3% and gotta call. basically he would have to be a huge huge huge nit and some unrealistic bot or something to fold 99 here.

[curtains]

anything but calling is terrible. Too hungry to go into detail, sorry!

[timex]

Whats your play if you are mangospapa with 99 given how nitty OP has been?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats your play if you are mangospapa with 99 given how nitty OP has been?

[/ QUOTE ]


Standard play for me in that spot would definitely be to move allin. I'd be worried about using a read too much when someone just makes a standard button raise. Even a nit will raise a decent number of hands there, I should think. Of course itll make some difference whether they raise with 30% of hands or 50% of hands, however I think that 99 is too strong against any reasonable button range/SB pushing range here. These guys have no chips left, the SB has basically 10x blinds left if you account for antes and the button only about 15.

Meanwhile SB's range should be very wide, and include most pairs lower than 99 and plenty of other dominated type hands such as A7s etc.

[JFJB]

JFJB: calls 83630
*** FLOP *** [6c 6d Qd]
*** TURN *** [6c 6d Qd] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [6c 6d Qd Kd] [Jh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hersco1: shows [As Kh] (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
JFJB: shows [9d 9c] (two pair, Nines and Sixes)
hersco1 collected 228060 from pot

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
JFJB: calls 83630
*** FLOP *** [6c 6d Qd]
*** TURN *** [6c 6d Qd] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [6c 6d Qd Kd] [Jh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hersco1: shows [As Kh] (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
JFJB: shows [9d 9c] (two pair, Nines and Sixes)
hersco1 collected 228060 from pot

[/ QUOTE ]

See you did the right thing! Doesn't it make you feel so good?

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JFJB: calls 83630
*** FLOP *** [6c 6d Qd]
*** TURN *** [6c 6d Qd] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [6c 6d Qd Kd] [Jh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hersco1: shows [As Kh] (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
JFJB: shows [9d 9c] (two pair, Nines and Sixes)
hersco1 collected 228060 from pot

[/ QUOTE ]

See you did the right thing! Doesn't it make you feel so good?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahaha.

But seriously, well played OP, nothing else you can do.

[JFJB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JFJB: calls 83630
*** FLOP *** [6c 6d Qd]
*** TURN *** [6c 6d Qd] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [6c 6d Qd Kd] [Jh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hersco1: shows [As Kh] (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
JFJB: shows [9d 9c] (two pair, Nines and Sixes)
hersco1 collected 228060 from pot

[/ QUOTE ]

See you did the right thing! Doesn't it make you feel so good?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really! For me, 'Feel so good' only happens when I finish first which, in all honesty, does not happen often enough for my taste.

Also, I insta called that hand and part of my reasonning was that it is better (overall - long run) to more often finish 7th combined with top 3 finishes then just beeing an incredible nit and fold in order to move up in the money and finishing say 4th to 6th.

Although the answer and situation is pretty clear on the +CEV move I still think it was also the +$EV move (to call). Any agreement or disagreement?