Big hand against TMay's bro - Tom - $15,000 Main Event at the Bellagio

[TheUsher]

(sorry I don't know your online nick btw - don't think anyone has told me it before)



Starting stacks 30,000 - 50/100 is first level - 90 min levels(?)

No history between us. My read on him so far is that he could be a good internet player, and that he's probably played a decent amount live too from how he's playing with his chips. I didn't know who it was against at the time, but found out a little after. He also knew who I was after but didn't know during the hand. Some things I've been noticing... he doesn't go 3x PF as a standard open, so his raise here PF is standard. This is the first time he's opened in EP, esp UTG... he's limped a few times from those spots but that's it. Whenever he's opened PF before he ALWAYS cbet the flop to around 50-60% pot so that might influence this hand a bit.

So on to the hand:

10 minutes into Level 2 (100/200):

He opens UTG to 575, I'm in the CO w/9c9s and call. Right when I call and as the action is going on behind me I'm thinking of what to do on a 1 overcard flop... I should probably fold since I'm crushed against his opening range but I wasn't sure what I'd do at the time.

Flop: Kh 3h 3d (1450)

He checks, I check behind.

Turn: 9d (1450)

He bets 700, I raise to 2400, and he reraises me to 5000 total pretty quickly, and I call in normal pace.

River: 2s (11450)

He takes a few seconds then starts counting out chips... thinks of 11k then adds 1k then adds 3 more 1k's for a total bet of 15000.

I have 22500 left on river and he covers by maybe 5000-6000.


You = ?



Wasn't really going to ever post this hand but a couple of people have been bugging me plus it's a really interesting hand. What do you put him on? What's his range per street? In his eyes, what would you put me on? Any psychological factors that would affect this hand in his eyes considering it's a $15k event? I know it affects my thinking a bit, not how I'd play the hand really since I'm still thinking every hand is still a poker hand in itself but I'd assume it might change how other play people in certain spots. Some quick examples might be that it changes bluff frequency %'s in small spots, vbets, etc etc.

(if you know results, please don't kill it for everyone)

[Bakes]

Edit: posted first time and saw that he raised UTG not in LP. I'd probably have to have a sick read to fold basically 2nd nuts here. Would he have any reason to put you on a flush draw after your turn raise?

[datrupoker]

prob has KK since your posting I guess? could have AA possibly and possibly AK, although with AA and AK I would assume after u C/Raised turn he would just check/call. He prob has KK, but no way in hell I am laying this down under any circumstances if I am you

[Deuce2High]

i'd call but it's a fold

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: posted first time and saw that he raised UTG not in LP. I'd probably have to have a sick read to fold basically 2nd nuts here. Would he have any reason to put you on a flush draw after your turn c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have position on him, couldn't c/r him on turn...

[TheNewf]

If he plays like Tmay this is a fold. KK/33 is the only thing that really makes sense, it's hard to imagine this is a pure move (AQhh?) but I guess people do crazy stuff sometimes.I have no idea if Tmay's bro is good though, so I'd call this.

[Bakes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Edit: posted first time and saw that he raised UTG not in LP. I'd probably have to have a sick read to fold basically 2nd nuts here. Would he have any reason to put you on a flush draw after your turn c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have position on him, couldn't c/r him on turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

oops better reread this again, [censored].

[psyduck]

Wow.

His lack of a c-bet on that board is very fishy especially given that when he has the iniative he c-bets.

This is pretty sick. Could he be overplaying some 3x here? It's unlikely since I don't see what kind of 3x he'd open there preflop besides 33.

I seriously think that 300bb deep with this action and his river overbet, you see KK full or quads very often. No other hand makes sense. Obviously I also think that his bluffing frequency is close to 0 here given no previous history.

[SossMan]

haven't read the replies...

well, it's pretty clear by the post that you were cold-decked w/ KK. Let's take it Street by street.

Preflop, he raises in EP for the first time...normal sized raise.
range = TT+, AK, AQs? plus a few splashing hands

Flop: he has c-bet every time. that is actually a wonderful piece of info and something that not enough people bother to keep track of. i think it influences this hand a great deal.

When he checks the flop, that's gotta be a red flag, but I'm not giving him credit for just KK yet. After all, AA and AK are both pretty huge hands on that flop since there's not much that you could plausibly have that is beating AA/AK (you are likely not calling a pf raise w/ a single 3 and 33/kk/AA are both statistically unlikely. He realizes that with AK/AA, you are drawing to 5 outs at the most w/ something like KQ, but far more likely drawing to 2 outs w/ something like...say 99.

If I were him, I would probably play AK/AA similarly.
I'm guessing, based upon his check, that he doesn't have TT-QQ. But I suppose they are still possible.

Turn: 9

This is a great/horrible card of course.

You have to think that he's going to lead here with the bulk of his range, so let's think about what raising accomplishes.

AK/AA are in the same spot except they are now losing to 99. Not really enough to worry about. If we raise, then given that he checked the flop then weak led the turn, a raise here by us doens't really seem all that out of the ordinary. We could be raising w/ a lot figuring that he's stabbing with a middle pair or such.

Given that, what does his small reraise tell us? It certainly looks scary since he's not really going to lose KQ or AK w/ his raise if he thinks your FOS. With AA, he probably still thinks that he's ahead, but you would think that he's more inclined to take a showdown.

The flush draws make it somewhat more intriguing, but it's just odd to see someone make a semi-bluff on the turn w/ a FD on a paired, scary board. Plus his raise doesn't really look like he's scared of giving a cheap river to a flush draw.

So that brings us to KK/AA/AK with KK in the lead.

I think that AK/AA are too likely for you to fold the turn, though.

Call on the turn 3 bet seems reasonable.

River blanks off. Seems like if he thought you were on a FD that he would check to you and let you bluff at it.

His playing with his chips sure makes it look like he's milking a value bet out of you. I just don't see him continuing to bet here w/ AA/AK. I think a check/call is much more likely.

So, he either has pulled a very elaborate move from the get go on you, or he has KK. I just don't see anything else. I suppose there is a small chance of 33, but KK certainly looks pretty likely.

I think it's a river fold.

-sossman

[SossMan]

something else to note on the river bet....

what is in your range that you fold for 15k but not 10k. he is probably deducing this as he's thinking about how to milk you, and figures that you'll call 15k as easily as 10k, so he wants to get the most without totally overbetting.