Good News 4 US - but odds on passage get better???

citrus · #1 07-27-2006, 09:50 PM

Hello All,

I have read alot of good news today how the anti internet gambling bill is meeting resistance in the Senate .

However, on Tradesports the odds are moving the opposite direction. Currently at 26.5 (ML +277)

I am hoping bad news in not lurking.

Can anyone explain??

Thank you

Citrus

Berge20 · #2 07-27-2006, 10:30 PM

Nothing I'm aware of today came out, but I've been in minimum wage battle so havent had time to pay attention.

Leavenfish · #3 07-27-2006, 11:07 PM

Ummm...why do sports lines do this? There is your answer...it's in getting that spot to where the bookie can make money but make the bet attractive.

---Leavenfish

Beastmaster · #4 07-27-2006, 11:11 PM

Hasn't it been in the 20-25 range?
The news on this has bounced around a bit
but I thought the recent article was some
of the best news we've heard on this.

ace_in_the_hole · #5 07-28-2006, 12:48 AM

I'm guessing a bunch of people booked action ata the old odds so now they are adjusting.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #6 07-28-2006, 01:06 AM

The Tradesports contract is probably not any more reliable than a broad, ballpark estimate. There just isn't enough volume. Several of the dramatic shifts we've seen have been triggered by one -- literally one -- person buying or selling a substantial number of shares.

Mr.K · #7 07-28-2006, 09:43 AM

Absent substantial, direct insider information, those TS prices don't make any sense the way they've fluctuated. As others have said, volume is very low right now. I gather I own about 10% of the contracts in circulation, FWIW.

Up until the word of the holds got out, 20 to 30 was a very fair price, and now that we've seen the political/procedural environment firm up a little, giving us a high degree of short term certainty (now thru first week of Sept), and only a moderate degree of longer term knowledge (Sept is truly a wild card, post-election lame duck less so), I would expect to see some range and fluctuation in the prices, but not quite this much. I won't buy above 18 knowing what I know now, and I won't sell below 28 or so. Anything inbetween those numbers seems IMO to be a wash, esp. with the fees TS charges for price takers. Take that for what it's worth, and know that my positions might change at the drop of a hat.