*** OFFICIAL 10/14/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

Performify · #1 10-10-2007, 09:57 PM

This is the official thread for 10/14/07 NFL Early Games.

These are games which start at 1pm EST (noon central, 11am mountain and 10am pacific).

The scheduled games are as follows:

MIN @ CHI
MIA @ CLE
WAS @ GB
HOU @ JAC
STL @ BAL
CIN @ KC
TEN @ TB
PHI @ NYJ

alwardc4 · #2 10-11-2007, 11:56 AM

I already have Philly -2.5 (-110). At what point is it best to middle this. I know Jets +3 (even) is slightly +EV. What about somehow using the Jets ML to arb? Or should I just ride the nice price I got on Philly?

PorkchopDJG · #3 10-11-2007, 12:37 PM

Thanks for posting this.
Warning: I am more a poker player and not really a sports better so please excuse my ignorance when I ask basic questions regarding this weekend but I will be in Vegas with friends and betting on some games.

Can you list the point spreads for these games here and the over/under numbers as well?

I am from Minn but am definitely betting on the Bears over the Vikes.
I am also thinking of taking Philly over NYJ as well.
I am also looking at the over for the Mia@Cle and Cin@KC games.

Any tips or advice you guys can give would be appreciated.

Nonfiction · #4 10-11-2007, 12:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Can you list the point spreads for these games here and the over/under numbers as well?

[/ QUOTE ]
Spreads and over/under numbers are different depending on the book

gringo_grinder · #5 10-11-2007, 02:51 PM

I really like STL and WAS to cover. I even like WAS money line.

Baltimore is on average outscored 19-17 per game and Frerotte put up 31 pts last week. I really can't imagine the ravens covering, and I'm even a Ravens fan.

I think GB will match up a lot like DET did last week vs WAS. all pass, no run, and I love the skins' secondary to shut down favre.

I think Minny to cover 5.5 vs Chi is also a solid pick. Barring a Hester DST score, this game will be super close.

I might throw down a tiny long shot parlay on Was, Ten, Miami all money line. Miami is weird, but without Green, I think Lemon will step up to earn the job. I think Jamal Lewis is out as well, but need confirmation.

I also like Jax and Phi to cover.

dtan05 · #6 10-11-2007, 03:23 PM

doesn't phi seem like they will cover this a large % of the time here? westbrook is back isn't he?

Nonfiction · #7 10-11-2007, 03:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really like STL and WAS to cover. I even like WAS money line.

Baltimore is on average outscored 19-17 per game and Frerotte put up 31 pts last week. I really can't imagine the ravens covering, and I'm even a Ravens fan.

I think GB will match up a lot like DET did last week vs WAS. all pass, no run, and I love the skins' secondary to shut down favre.

I think Minny to cover 5.5 vs Chi is also a solid pick. Barring a Hester DST score, this game will be super close.

I might throw down a tiny long shot parlay on Was, Ten, Miami all money line. Miami is weird, but without Green, I think Lemon will step up to earn the job. I think Jamal Lewis is out as well, but need confirmation.

I also like Jax and Phi to cover.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm on Washington for 2 units. Like you said, Washingtons secondary is great, and Green Bay is pretty much all pass.

I also agree with the Ravens not covering. Their offense will struggle to even put up 10 total, let alone cover by 10. I still think they win this game, but by a field goal.

I don't really like any other plays in the early games enough to bet on them. Might throw a unit on Tennessee a +3 but really undecided there.

siccjay · #8 10-11-2007, 05:56 PM

I don't know. I think I am feeling a fade the public and take the Ravens -10. The line could get better too of course right?

I see can see it easily being like 17-3 or a 20-6 type of game. I think it's a tarp!

LogistX · #9 10-11-2007, 08:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know. I think I am feeling a fade the public and take the Ravens -10. The line could get better too of course right?

I see can see it easily being like 17-3 or a 20-6 type of game. I think it's a tarp!

[/ QUOTE ]

This line made my gambol-sense tingle. Baltimore's offense has been unbelievably pathetic in the last 2 games. However, in the first 3 games of the season they put up 20 pts each game and they're still 11th in total offense. Also, the only decent defense that St. Louis went up against (Bucs) held them well. STL+9.5/10 may not be as good as it first appears. Also, wagerline shows more people taking the points.

psuasskicker · #10 10-11-2007, 10:38 PM

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However, in the first 3 games of the season they put up 20 pts each game and they're still 11th in total offense.

[/ QUOTE ]

They're also one of the worst teams on converting red zone attempts into TDs, and they give up too much through the air. NYJ, AZ, and SF kept it close; a bad Cinci team got their only win; and Clev blew them out.

This Ravens team is not good. I'm a Ravens ultra-super-mega-fanboi, and right now I think an 8-8 finish would be overachieving.

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