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#1
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Re: pitch outs....
The book The Book - Playing the Percentages in Baseball does a basic game theory analysis on the pitch out and I think I remember it saying that managers are good at calling them. I don't recall if they actually said near optimal.
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#2
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Re: pitch outs....
i'd estimate that it's +EV mostly because a lot of the times managers do it in situations where giving the free ball isn't very -EV
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