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#1
03-05-2007, 02:06 PM
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Lugo, will the offense be worth it?
Typical Red Sox fan, I'm getting ready to jump off the Tobin already concerning Lugo's defense or should say lack thereof. Only very early in Spring Training but he looks shaky at short.
With all the offense the Sox have, I'm having trouble believing that they aren't better off with gold glove caliber/no hit Agon than shaky d/good hit Lugo. 
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#2
03-05-2007, 02:31 PM
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Re: Lugo, will the offense be worth it?
I agree with you Toro.
Lugo is a career .277 / .340 / .402 hitter. He averages 9.7 HR and 48 RBI per season. He averages 74 runs scored over his 7 MLB seasons. He turns 31 in November 2007. Gonzo is a career .246 / .302 / .391 hitter, with averages of 10 HR and 47 RBI and 67 runs scored per season (9 MLB seasons). He turns 30 in December 2007. Source: 2006 Bill James Handbook So the question becomes how to relate Gonzo's defense to runs prevented, in order to make up for Lugo's edge in runs scored, average, OBP. My eyes tell me that Gonzo gets to more balls, turns more double plays, makes fewer errors, and, with Lowell at third, makes a formidable left side of the infield. With Lugo, you still get decent range but with a sometimes erratic arm. He's in the second tier of MLB SS's defensively IMO. Others in this category include Furcal, Rollins, Tejada, (see the trend... these guys are known as "offensive shortstops"); whereas the elite glove men that Gonzo's club includes are: Vizquel, Jeter, Everett. Rather than continue boring you, my expectation is more or less a wash. Lugo will score a few more runs than Gonzo, especially hitting in front of that potent lineup, but he'll also cost more runs in the field. Lugo can steal a base for you, not that it matters in the AL. He's a career 139/191 73% success. The 3 year averages show Lugo's superior offense: Lugo: .284 / .351 / .405, 80 RS, 51 BB/84K, 20 SB, 8GIDP. Gonzo: .249 / .296 / .397, 53 RS, 27BB/91K , 3SB, 11 GIDP. So over the past 3 seasons do I think Gonzo's defense has "prevented" and average of 27 runs per season? I doubt it. At least I think that's the argument on Yawkey way.
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#3
03-05-2007, 02:38 PM
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Re: Lugo, will the offense be worth it?
Lugo is better, defense considered.
whether or not he is worth the money is another question, but I've given up on trying to figure out if something is a good deal or not wrt to the Red Sox. there is no salary cap, so squeezing an extra couple million here or there just doesn't matter enough for us to talk about. at least it won't matter until the teams open up their books so we know if/how much money they are making
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#5
03-05-2007, 03:02 PM
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Re: Lugo, will the offense be worth it?
[ QUOTE ]
If you need someone to slam a chick's head on the hood of a car, Lugo's your man. [/ QUOTE ] or to hit .219/.278/.267 in 150 ABs when your favorite team trades away 2 decent prospects so that they can rent him for half a season.
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#6
03-05-2007, 03:20 PM
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Re: Lugo, will the offense be worth it?
[ QUOTE ]
whether or not he is worth the money is another question, but I've given up on trying to figure out if something is a good deal or not wrt to the Red Sox. there is no salary cap, so squeezing an extra couple million here or there just doesn't matter enough for us to talk about. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, me too, the money is also a non-issue with me. If he's really an upgrade, then I'm good with it, but for me anyway the jury is still out. Maybe I just fell in love with Gonzo's defense last year.
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#7
03-05-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: Lugo, will the offense be worth it?
Gonzo also missed 51 games last year, fwiw.
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#9
03-05-2007, 08:31 PM
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Re: Lugo, will the offense be worth it?
Lugo is a far worse defender than Gonzo, but he's really not bad.
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#10
03-05-2007, 09:42 PM
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Re: Lugo, will the offense be worth it?
There is so many things wrong with your post it's not even funny.
Most notably is your inclusion of Jeter amongst the best defensive SS's and you comparing the players Runs scored. Lugo is definitely an upgrade though, his defense isn't that bad : http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...s_as_i_see_it/ Has Lugo as above average but preventing 12 less runs than Gonzo last year. His offense(particularly OBP) more than makes up for it.
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