how close is this?

Fly · #1 08-13-2007, 12:59 PM

I've been playing pretty laggy and picking up a lot of good hands. I have been 3betting a lot more than normal. Unfortunately, I wasn't really paying attention to the other players (except in bog pots vs me) so I'm not sure how villain has been playing or how long he's been at the table (I suspect not to long).

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.40/$0.80 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $192.45
BB: $88.35
UTG: $147.05
Hero (BTN): $581.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
UTG raises to $2.00, Hero raises to $7.00, 2 folds, UTG calls $5.00

Flop: ($15.20) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $12.00, UTG calls $12.00

Turn: ($39.20) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $30.00, UTG raises all-in to $128.05

*** · #2 08-13-2007, 01:09 PM

I'd say it's about this close:
Board: 5c Jc 3h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.879% 27.88% 00.00% 184 0.00 { KhJh }
Hand 1: 72.121% 72.12% 00.00% 476 0.00 { AA, 55, 33, AcTc, JTs }

Which isn't close enough to call. I have a hard time thinking of many worse hands that he can do this with, and they generally don't affect the EV that much. Adding 6c4c and 6h4c makes it close, but I would be quite surprised if an unknown bluffs here with over 150bb.

Even changing your bet size to a pot size bet doesn't make this an easier decision (you are putting in about 30% of the money that way with still not that much equity). If I am not understanding how aggressive this game plays on average then it might be better to make a pot sized bet and then call, but it would take some convincing to make me think that is best.

Suigin406 · #3 08-13-2007, 01:13 PM

i suck at math, but from first glance, i don't see how u call this

Fly · #4 08-13-2007, 01:17 PM

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but I would be quite surprised if an unknown bluffs here with over 150bb.

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200bb is just 1 buyin (and people play accordingly)

fitnessfreak · #5 08-13-2007, 01:31 PM

this is going to sound really results oriented but i think checking the turn is good here. you dont want to get knocked off your draw, and you probably arent going to get two more streets of value off a worse hand, except maybe QJ or KJ also. there arent many river cards you dont like and you can squeeze out more river value from a worse J, and snap off a missed club draw river bluff (ppl always bluff the missed draw when you check behind the turn at ssnl [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Nielsio · #6 08-13-2007, 01:37 PM

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this is going to sound really results oriented but i think checking the turn is good here. you dont want to get knocked off your draw, and you probably arent going to get two more streets of value off a worse hand, except maybe QJ or KJ also. there arent many river cards you dont like and you can squeeze out more river value from a worse J, and snap off a missed club draw river bluff (ppl always bluff the missed draw when you check behind the turn at ssnl [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

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Fly · #7 08-13-2007, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is going to sound really results oriented but i think checking the turn is good here. you dont want to get knocked off your draw, and you probably arent going to get two more streets of value off a worse hand, except maybe QJ or KJ also. there arent many river cards you dont like and you can squeeze out more river value from a worse J, and snap off a missed club draw river bluff (ppl always bluff the missed draw when you check behind the turn at ssnl [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

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This guy calls down light. I expect to get 2 more streets of value from any jack. He'll (atleast) call the turn w/ a flush or straight draw.

terp · #8 08-13-2007, 02:00 PM

lol @ not getting two more streets of value with top pair.

at first i thought to throw in some 53 and semibluff type hands but all i can really think of that MIGHT do this (that we beat) is stuff like K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] / A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] etc. you'd know better than we would about his ability to pop up with these, but given your read about your own activity at the table and his probable suckiness (he opened to 2.5BB) this could swing to a call.

default def is muck as played

Dan Bitel · #9 08-13-2007, 02:34 PM

ummm...I'm in the checking turnvcamp too rly.

Can some1 plz explain to my why betting is so much better

the machine · #10 08-13-2007, 02:37 PM

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ummm...I'm in the checking turnvcamp too rly.

Can some1 plz explain to my why betting is so much better

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its not imo. villain has to really suck for me to think im going to get value on turn and river with tp2k. this is not a turn i want to have to fold to a c/r. im checking here.