Live $2/$5 hand: combo draw oop

[Lucky]

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In this hand, i'm probably leaning toward c/c because of your bad relative position.

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Is it really that bad if I crai and then get called by one of the ep limp/callers with 22/44? Obviously I'm more of an underdog but there is the overlay from the pf raiser and the chance that he calls with AK getting sick odds.

EDIT/ADDENDUM: If I c/c and the turn bricks, I have to c/f, right? That seems like a bigger mistake given the stack sizes.

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Relative position is very important and you have worst position possible in this hand. There are 2 players still to act, who might very have checked here. You're a 70/30 dog against set. Again, i like c/r much better if you had relative position on flop, pfr bets and its folded to you.
So yeah, c/c most flops and c/f to big turn bet. The good thing about live full ring games is he's likely to bet smallish on flop and turn with his top pair, so you may be priced in.

[Blizzardbaum]

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In this hand, i'm probably leaning toward c/c because of your bad relative position.

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Is it really that bad if I crai and then get called by one of the ep limp/callers with 22/44? Obviously I'm more of an underdog but there is the overlay from the pf raiser and the chance that he calls with AK getting sick odds.

EDIT/ADDENDUM: If I c/c and the turn bricks, I have to c/f, right? That seems like a bigger mistake given the stack sizes.

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Relative position is very important and you have worst position possible in this hand. There are 2 players still to act, who might very have checked here. You're a 70/30 dog against set. Again, i like c/r much better if you had relative position on flop, pfr bets and its folded to you.
So yeah, c/c most flops and c/f to big turn bet. The good thing about live full ring games is he's likely to bet smallish on flop and turn with his top pair, so you may be priced in.

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I understand what you're saying about relative position. My concern about the c/c flop, c/f turn line is that the two EP limpers don't have 22/44 nearly enough for me to sacrifice the 45%-50% + FE against AK with a crai. Plus, for the times (1/15?) one of those two does have a hand that beats mine, I have decent outs and am never drawing dead against anything.

[Lucky]

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In this hand, i'm probably leaning toward c/c because of your bad relative position.

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Is it really that bad if I crai and then get called by one of the ep limp/callers with 22/44? Obviously I'm more of an underdog but there is the overlay from the pf raiser and the chance that he calls with AK getting sick odds.

EDIT/ADDENDUM: If I c/c and the turn bricks, I have to c/f, right? That seems like a bigger mistake given the stack sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Relative position is very important and you have worst position possible in this hand. There are 2 players still to act, who might very have checked here. You're a 70/30 dog against set. Again, i like c/r much better if you had relative position on flop, pfr bets and its folded to you.
So yeah, c/c most flops and c/f to big turn bet. The good thing about live full ring games is he's likely to bet smallish on flop and turn with his top pair, so you may be priced in.

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I understand what you're saying about relative position. My concern about the c/c flop, c/f turn line is that the two EP limpers don't have 22/44 nearly enough for me to sacrifice the 45%-50% + FE against AK with a crai. Plus, for the times (1/15?) one of those two does have a hand that beats mine, I have decent outs and am never drawing dead against anything.

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yeah, c/r is def option, i just like c/c better in this spot. imo c/c > c/r > bet here.

[FireStorm]

Check raise the flop. At the Borgata joke 2-5 NL game, where you see some trash like Kc5c often enough to make you puke, I'm going the distance here with top pair, 2nd nut four flush. Check raise all in as you're flipping against AK and AA as mentioned, and you (assumably) have FE against KQ, KJ, KT, etc. Also, it seems in your thread you're mentioning the villian only. Granted, from your perspective, he's the player you're focusing this assessment on. But when you're in the actual hand, as first to act you should formulate a line of thinking geared towards the fact that it's a 5 way pot.

[howzit]

remember, there isn't just one villain here, there are 5. c/c the flop and you might get worse flush draw to call. then c/fold the turn if you're not getting the right price.

or if you want to get aggro and play for stacks, lead into the field for $80 and c/r the turn all-in. need a good read and know player's tendencies to do this and this being your 2nd orbit or whatever, i don't recommend this.

play this one straightforward.

[Yads]

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How much FE do I need/care to have against AA/AK? I'm 45% against AK and 50/50 against AA here.

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You definitely don't need much if any especially against AA since you're getting an overlay with all of the money already in the pot. I hate c/c line OOP the most as it allows underpairs to get away cheap and if he does have the AK he may put you all in on a non heart turn and you won't be able to call. Get it in now while you have the equity.

Obviously the CRAI line gives you the most fold equity and you don't have to worry much about the players in between as the only reasonable hands they will call you with are sets and you're not that dead to a set even.

[mindless]

Woops, yeah, obviously you have no folding equity against KK. I don't have pokerstove at work, but let's try to run some numbers, assuming he bets 100 into the 125 pot and you've both got 550 left postflop.
1a) if you checkraise all in and he calls, let's give you about 45% equity against a range of AA/AK/KK/KQ, which means that you put in 450 to win 1225, so your EV is:
.45*1225-550 = 0.
1b) However, some percentage of the time one of the limpers wakes up and calls with a set. When that happens, your equity drops to about 31%, though the pot goes up to about 1775 if both people call. In that case, your EV is:
.31*1775-550 = 0 anyway.
1c) If the limper calls but the button folds, your equity is 30% in a 1325 pot, so your EV is:
.30*1325-550 = -150.
1d) And of course, some percentage of the time he folds to your checkraise, when you your EV is simply the pot:
225.
Now assign some percentages:
I'd go with something like:
1a) 50%
1b) 5%
1c) 5%
1d) 40%
Which means that the EV of a c/r all in is:
.5*0 + .05*0 + .05*-150+ .4*225 = ~$215. That sounds good.

Of course, my numbers may be way off.
Now let's check the numbers for checking and calling, which are much harder. Once again as before, we're assuming that it gets checked around to the PFR who bets 100.
2a) You call, everyone else folds, and you miss the turn (pot is 325, you both have 450 left). He bets the turn and you fold. In this case your EV is:
-100.
2b) You call, everyone folds, and you hit the turn. Now the pot is still 325, and you have 450 left. You get it all in here, and he has maybe 2 outs (either a KK that you're still behind when you caught twopair, or his KK that boats up, or his AK catches an A after you catch an 8):
now your EV is:
1225-550-2/46*1225 = 620
2c) You call, hit the turn, but don't get it all in. Instead, you bet 275 on a river and get called, let's say. Now your EV is simply:
(125+100+275)*(44/46) = 480
2d) You call, miss the turn, it gets checked through, hit the river, get it all in:
1225-550 = 725
2e) You call, miss the turn, it gets checked through, hit the river, bet 275:
125+100+275 = 500
2f) You call, miss the turn, miss the river, check through and your hand is good:
EV = 100+125 = 225.
2f) You call, miss the turn, miss the river, check and call a bet. If you call a bet here, I'm guessing your hand is good about half the time so your EV is simply the preflop pot:
125
ok, that's all the possibilities with just you and him. Adding in other people makes this a bitch, and we also need ot assign probabilities to the flop and turn:
Let's assume all 9 flushes are outs, and that while some combination of the three 8s and two Ks are outs, you can't count all of them since he might AK or KK, so lets give you 4/5 twopair/three of a kind outs for a total of 13 outs. So on the flop, you have 13/47 for a 27.6%, and on the turn it's 13/46, for a 28.3%.
so p(2a,d,e,or f) = 72.4%, and p(2b or c) = 27.6%. Let's break that up into p(2b) = 20%, and p(2c) = 7.6%. Arbitrarily, let's say that he checks the turn after betting the flop 1/4 the time. That means that p(2a) = 53.8%, and we now allocated the rest given that p(2d or e) = 5%, so let's just make that p(2d) = 4% and p(2e) = 1%, yielding p(2f) = 13%.
Adding this all up gives:
.538*(-100) + .2*620 + .076*480 + .04*725+ .01*225 + .13*125= $108 total EV with my numbers for check calling

Wow, I was way off. I guess given how deep the stacks are, you should definitely checkraise all in. However, p(I messed up) is at least 50%, so if someone wants to be nice, please double check this. I have no interest in doing this again, but it looks like with deeper stacks or a smaller initial pot, you're starting to get to where you should check/call.