[150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb's Deep

[Danibusman]

LOL @ the guy who called me a retarded tagfish. I'm the villian btw. This was a sick cooler, and based on OP's description of me which is fairly accurate, I probly fold in his shoes. I have AA, KK, or 44 here(maybe), never AK b.c i know he has a set on flop. He said he didnt think id lead into 3 players w. top set on sucha dry board, but i wanna stack lower sets and dont mind missing the turn action which i might get if an Ace falls,board makes draw, etc. If I am him I raise flop, flat turn, then call river or bet if i check b.c then im likely AK. And btw, for those hating on my game, I usually run 28/24/4ish 6-8 tabling 100nl. I've been 1-2 tabling 300DS lately b.c of the sick fish that it draws. My stats are looser and less aggresive preflop here b.c i think it generally pays.

best,
Danibus

[ikestoys]

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pokerstove really really doesn't apply that great here because the frequency in which he plays AA/KK like this is virtually 100% (like if he has those hands he's playing it like this), but the frequency he plays AKs/AKo/44 like this is very different, and stove doesn't weight the ranges at all.

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I'm sorry, but this is the most std line for AK/44 EVER.

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I'm curious why you would say something like "the amount of BBs at play doesn't matter, it just matters what % I have to be correct" since surely you can concede that the amount of BBs at play will change the percent of times you're ahead since tight'ish players are much more conservative with 550bbs than they are with 100bbs.

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think about it harder, its pretty obvious.

[Keyser.]

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pokerstove really really doesn't apply that great here because the frequency in which he plays AA/KK like this is virtually 100% (like if he has those hands he's playing it like this), but the frequency he plays AKs/AKo/44 like this is very different, and stove doesn't weight the ranges at all.

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I'm sorry, but this is the most std line for AK/44 EVER.

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I'm curious why you would say something like "the amount of BBs at play doesn't matter, it just matters what % I have to be correct" since surely you can concede that the amount of BBs at play will change the percent of times you're ahead since tight'ish players are much more conservative with 550bbs than they are with 100bbs.

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think about it harder, its pretty obvious.

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good post, ty

[loosbastard]

It's clear that a lot of you don't play this deep that often because this is practically NEVER AK if he's any good at all. I mean what does our hand look like? We have 444/888 here almost every single time after calling the turn 3-bet.

[Hooked]

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wow such a sick spot, i think its pretty close based entirely on whether he can do this with AK even some of the time. Also i suppose if 44 is part of his range.

Imo KK isnt nearly as large a part of his range as AA, why would he contbet so large with top set on such a dry flop unless there is some deeper level thinking which im not gonna give him credit for at 150NL.

I prob call and pray he has AK but most of the time i think he shows up with AA

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Ding , Ding, Ding

[ikestoys]

he raises pre, cbs, b/3b turn with dez two pairs or a set.. how can we rule out 44 or AK?

the amt of bb doesn't matter only the percentage of times you have be right to call. Obviously the former changes the later, but only later matters.

[loosbastard]

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the amt of bb doesn't matter only the percentage of times you have be right to call. Obviously the former changes the later, but only later matters.


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From a strictly mathematical POV, you're correct. But can't you see the psychological difference? We are 550 bb deep. There are very very few players that are capable of shoving river here that thinly (and yes I think shoving AK/44 is pretty thin given how the turn played out).

[ikestoys]

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From a strictly mathematical POV, you're correct. But can't you see the psychological difference?

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i'm quitting ssnl for the night lol

i play 400bb deep a lot... people don't fold top two or sets here. ever.

[MichaelBolton777]

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pokerstove really really doesn't apply that great here because the frequency in which he plays AA/KK like this is virtually 100% (like if he has those hands he's playing it like this), but the frequency he plays AKs/AKo/44 like this is very different, and stove doesn't weight the ranges at all.

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I'm sorry, but this is the most std line for AK/44 EVER.

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I'm curious why you would say something like "the amount of BBs at play doesn't matter, it just matters what % I have to be correct" since surely you can concede that the amount of BBs at play will change the percent of times you're ahead since tight'ish players are much more conservative with 550bbs than they are with 100bbs.

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think about it harder, its pretty obvious.

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yea, i understand what you are saying. only the % of stack left v. our equity matters, right? You said we have to be right around 30% here. Shouldn't that number be higher, though, to include the 200 more we have to put in on the turn? So instead of having to call 7 to win 14, we have to call 9 to win 12. Now we have to be right around 40% of the time, making it a fold. Did i mess up somewhere?

[loosbastard]

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i play 400bb deep a lot... people don't fold top two or sets here. ever.

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dFkdgkfdgh....that's right. So why is villain shoving AK?