Fold this AK PF?

[Jiggymike]

[ QUOTE ]
You're most likely against a pair. Your M was about 11 when you started the hand. If you fold, it's down to 9 and you're going to be in push-fold mode and you might not pick up a hand better than AK before you need to push. there is always the chance that this could be a re-steal with air or a weaker ace or a suited connector.

so I would call. 2nd choice fold. all-in re-raise is bad b/c only better hands are going to call you. call and go is bad b/c you're pot committed by the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call is obv. worst play unless you like to commit almost 1/2 your stack preflop and then think about folding on flop. So it's either all-in or fold. Against a solid player he's probably reraising JJ+/AK/AQ(? dunno about last one). You have AK so there are 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of KK, 9 combos of AK, 12 combos AQ (lets cut it in half to be fair so 6) and 6 combos of QQ and JJ each. It's late so I have to forego the math but I think it's pretty close between pushing and folding. Since you are behind his range and only a big favorite against AQ, I don't think folding is terrible. You've both been showing down solid hands so I don't think he is doing this with a much wider range. It also might encourage him to come over the top of you again when you have a hand you like better.

Even though pushing AK in a tournament is often +EV, there are situations where you can get rid of it. Villian wants to go all the way with his hand considering his raise, so don't feel bad if you fold it here. However I wouldn't fault a push either in order to try to double up, gotta make some gambles and a simple reraise shouldn't consistently keep you from making moves.

[J.A.K.]

You are right. The hands he is behind is AA KK and flipping against the rest getttin odds>

[speedgun]

[ QUOTE ]
You're both among the big stacks

[/ QUOTE ]

They are both big stacks at the table, but they do not have more than 12 of M either still away from the money. At Stars this probably means that this table is unusually low stacked compared to the overall field. You will soon need to double up to go deep into the money as a contender, and if AK is not a hand to do that with against one reraiser I don't know how many others are. I will just shove and see the remaining five cards if get called.

[HamJam]

push, u need a super strong read to fold AK against one opponent with 20bb.

this is +cev if either A) he does this with AQ B) he does this with 77 or 88. if youve been active i think both are likely which puts you in pretty decent shape against his range.

[RichC.]

one thing to add given the replies, we were both above the avg stacks left in the tourney.

[Lloyd]

For those who say "you've been active", read the rest of his statement. Since the villain got to the table he's shown down good hands, as has the villain.

So let's say the villain has AA-TT, AK, AQs. Let's also say that he'll fold TT and JJ half the time and AQs all the time if the hero re-raises pre-flop.

So there are a total of 36 hands the villain could have and he's going to fold 9 of them (half of TT/JJ and AQs). So the hero will win pre-flop 25% of the time. The rest of the time the hero is a 40/60 dog.

25% villain folds = Hero has 19,808
19,808 * .25 = 4,952

75% villain calls
40% hero wins = Hero has 27,459
27,459 * .40 = 10,984
60% hero loses = Hero has 289
289 * .6 = 173
Expected Stack When Hero is Called = 11,157 * .75 = 8,368

Expected stack if Hero pushes = 4,952 + 8,368 = 13,320

If hero folds, his stack is 11,574. So, looks like pushing is superior with those assumptions.

But let's take away AQs and TT from his range. After all, we're talking about a situation where the villain is up against an EP raiser who can bust him, and the villain is a good player.

So now there are a total of 27 total combinations the villain could have. Let's say he folds JJ half the time and calls with everything else. So he's calling 89% of the time and folding 11% of the time. When the hero is called he's still a 40/60 dog.

11% villain folds = Hero has 19,808
19,808 * .11 = 2,179

89% villain calls
40% hero wins = Hero has 27,459
27,459 * .40 = 10,984
60% hero loses = Hero has 289
289 * .6 = 173
Expected Stack When Hero is Called = 11,157 * .89 = 9,930

Expected stack if Hero pushes = 2,179 + 9,930 = 12,109. That's just a hair more than if the hero folds.

So all things considered, it does look like a pre-flop push might be the best play. I still don't think it's a clear cut decision as I think his range is closer to AA-JJ, AK than AA-TT, AK-AQs.

Also, I think raising 2.5 BBs at this stage might make some (maybe not this) decisions easier when the stack sizes are in this awkward 20 BB range.

[Jiggymike]

Lloyd,
Great post, thanks for doing the math I was too lazy to think about.

[RichC.]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Lloyd

FWIW, this was maybe one of the hardest PF decisions I have had to make in a while. I used up maybe half my timer on this one too before finally folding. Besides the math, which i did not calculate at the time obv. just made general assumptions that this was a 50/50 push fold and calling was ruled out. Other things I took into consideration was if i wanted to flip for my stack being a 40/60 dog at best.

I dont know if I made a sick read with so little info, but now the more i think about it, his reraise here is never less than JJ+ and AK. He said he had QQ which was generally what i put him on. I also dont think he folds anything that he raises me with since it was almost half his stack. One other thing i considered, there were still some pretty bad players at the table and I felt that I could get those chips back later.

My read about villain being a good player proved to be true as well.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
He is precisely behind every single pair.

[/ QUOTE ]Not from a pot odds perspective.

[anotherFliplost]

Is a stop-and-go ok here? Hero will be pushing ~8K into an ~12K pot on the flop, so I'm not sure about the FE even against whiffed mid pairs. Not that I mind a push.