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  #11  
Old 11-14-2007, 11:37 PM
GaZaZaZa GaZaZaZa is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

May anyone who honestly folds this flop please PM me and we can play some heads up... i have sooo many bills that need paying
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  #12  
Old 11-15-2007, 11:05 AM
brian64 brian64 is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

One other point on the flop is that you could be outdrawn by someone holding an overpair, so it may be a bad idea to give a free card.
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  #13  
Old 11-15-2007, 01:31 PM
rando rando is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

[ QUOTE ]

You are not folding this hand. It would be terrible poker to fold this hand. If Jesus Christ Himself bet, confided in you that He held the missing six, told you to trust in Him, and you had never, ever ever seen Him bluff, it would be terrible poker to fold this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of my favorite 2P2 quotes of all time, and gladly many have already re-posted this seminal reading. Also not lost on the wise one the 666 flop making this the most ironically germane reference possible in this situation.

In LO8 I can't imagine letting this go. I think the +EV meta-implications of going to SD with this hand far outweigh the monetary losses in this scenario.
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  #14  
Old 11-15-2007, 09:48 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

[ QUOTE ]
One other point on the flop is that you could be outdrawn by someone holding an overpair, so it may be a bad idea to give a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Brian – Very good point.

Hero doesn’t want to give an opponent a free roll to beat him.

At least one opponent out of the six who were dealt cards and saw the flop will have one pair higher than sixes almost all of the time. Hero is (obviously) a favorite against such a hand. If an opponent has a hand with all four cards higher than a six, a hand such as KKQJ, then Villain will make quads or end up with a better full house roughly 81 times out of 820. Villain with such a hand, when Hero also has AA22, will still lose to quad sixes roughly two times out of five, and ends up winning roughly 4.6%, as simulated.

Hero still wins often enough so that folding is not an option.

A Villain with two higher pairs is more of a threat. If Hero peeked in one opponent’s hand and saw KKQQ, with five other unknown opponents who could have a six, then Hero would do best to fold. But that will only happen somewhere in the neighborhood of 3%. The other 97%, almost all of it, Hero will be up against at least one opponent who has a hand with a pair.

Hero is greatly favored over such a hand, but you’re correct that Hero doesn’t want such a hand to get a free draw to continue. If Hero allows such a hand do stay in the pot until the showdown, Hero will miss out on winning the 7 small bets already in the pot approximately 10%. The other 90%, assuming somebody with such a hand will call on the river, Hero will win an extra 2 small bets from such a hand.
2*.90-7*.10 = 1.80-.70 = +1.10 small bets.

Allowing an opponent a free card or not is a dilemma. But there’s not much Hero can do about it. If Hero bets immediately, he probably loses his customer with one over-pair. Hero still loses to quad sixes approximately half of the time, and assuming he gets raised and then faces a bet on the third and fourth betting round, he ends up losing more than he wins by not betting on the second betting round.

It’s the loss of a paying customer combined with paying more to someone with a six that hurts Hero. It’s similar to (but not exactly the same as) pulling with some nut hands, not making it too expensive, even though there is a remote chance an opponent might draw out on you.

Buzz
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  #15  
Old 11-16-2007, 04:37 AM
Phil153 Phil153 is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming Hero puts at least one bet into the pot each round, in a fixed-limit game, Hero will lose a total of 5 more small bets. And Hero should fully expect to lose 24 times out of 45.

[/ QUOTE ]
My analysis is based on the fact that the price changes significantly once someone calls the flop and bets into you on the turn.

Perhaps the limit games you guys play are aggressive. That hasn't been my experience in the few low stakes limit games I've played.

I don't think it's fair to base your analysis on the preflop probability of 24/45 and then not adjust it for the action in the hand. Without doing that, you certainly can't claim that folding is mathematically wrong, since you've only done a portion of the math. If you assume that the 24/45 doesn't change, then of course you can't fold.
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  #16  
Old 11-16-2007, 12:19 PM
I dunno I dunno is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

Yeah, I don't find that people bluff very often on trip boards at the lower limit games. Mostly just maniacs.
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  #17  
Old 11-16-2007, 05:29 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

Hi Phil - Seems like there should be a way to tell whether an opponent has the missing six or not, and then play accordingly (meaning continue if nobody has the six and fold if somebody does).

But there isn't. Or at least I don't know of a way. Here's the problem:

It's overwhelmingly likely, when Hero is dealt AA22 and the flop is 666, that at least one of six other hands with which opponents see the flop will have a pair higher than sixes.

You can probably do the math better than I can. But if anybody doesn't believe me, just take a standard 52 card deck, remove three sixes + two aces + two deuces, shuffle the cards well and deal out six hands. See for yourself.

Shuffle up and deal again. And again. Do this about twenty times. It won't take you long to see for yourself. You'll find that overwhelmingly, at least one of those six four card hands will have a pair higher than sixes. (When you take those seven cards, 6-6-6-A-A-2-2, out of a deck it's amazing how likely other dealt hands are to have pairs)!

In a real game, whoever has a hand with a pair higher than sixes will hope nobody else has a hand with the missing six. If only a few people see the flop, maybe someone with a pair lower than sixes, or maybe someone with any hand at all, will try to steal the pot.

Anybody with the missing six may decide to slow play or may bet. That same person with a pair higher than sixes may decide to check or bet.

I'll agree that some opponents are more likely to bet when they have the six than not. And some opponents who slow play the quad sixes are more likely to bet a pair (without the six) than not.

A card-stupid Tricky Dicky is more likely not to have the hand he represents when he bets. But everyone holding a hand with a pair has made a full house. If Tricky Dicky is truly card-stupid, then he may think his full house is a good hand.

A card-stupid Honest Abe is more likely to bet a hand containing the six, but also may think a full house is good here and thus may bet with or without the six.

And card-smart players are damned hard to read. Poker is a game of deception, and some of your opponents are damned good at it - regular con-men. Some of my regular opponents could steal your eye teeth. I mean they're good at deception.

However, the only way you can be drawn into their plot is by trying to read them. By deciding to stick this hand/flop out to the showdown, you take away their skills at deception.

In a fixed limit game, the most somebody can bet is whatever the limit is each round. Pot limit is much different.

I have admittedly over-simplified. For example, what is Hero to do if there is a bet, a raise, and a re-raise before the action gets to Hero? (However, that wasn't the scenario presented by Olrik, the opening poster in this thread).

Buzz
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  #18  
Old 11-16-2007, 05:42 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I don't find that people bluff very often on trip boards at the lower limit games. Mostly just maniacs.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi I_Dunno - In lower limit games I don't think it's a matter of an opponent bluffing as much as simply not understanding what constitutes a good hand and over-playing their cards.

This is common with a pair of aces or kings. Someone misses a card of the same rank on the flop but continues with an over-pair, thinking that might be a good holding. (It generally is in Texas hold 'em, but not in loose Omaha).

Buzz
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  #19  
Old 11-16-2007, 11:44 PM
Phil153 Phil153 is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

Thanks for the explanation Buzz.
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  #20  
Old 11-17-2007, 07:21 PM
CAMEL1111 CAMEL1111 is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

Scaryyyyyyyyyyyyy
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