Another AA hand

[Absolution]

So the CO seems reasonable, he caps pre-flop and then 3-bets the flop to a check-raise. I really don't think you're getting bluffed on the turn so my instinct is to bet fold. I rarely say that in a pot this big, but I don't see him raising TT, JJ or AQ on the turn if we keep betting. I agree with Oink that checking and calling just throws away at least a BB, whereas if we bet and he calls we have an easy value bet on the river. The only problem with this is that he might be overaggressive and overplay AA on the turn, but that's 1 combo.

[sharpie]

I really dislike bet/folding the turn. With implied odds we're probably giving up around .75BB by bet/folding the turn. b/c, c/f could be good, but without much of a read I don't think I could fold it in a 15.5BB pot on the river.

If I'm unable to fold anywhere, I believe check/calling down is best as I think we're an underdog on the turn. If I can safely fold, and more importantly am capable of making the fold once I get to the river, I would bet/call the turn and check/fold the river UI.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

I told Municipal that his play was expert and I still believe that.

Simply put, nobody is bet/folding this turn in this spot. Those who say they would bet/fold here are lying. So when we all face the reality that none of us are gonna fold to a turn raise then the right play becomes obvious. Assuming the villain is "normal" His most likely hands after the preflop+flop sequence are AK,KK,QQ,AQ. AQ should be discounted cuz alot of people dont cap with that hand. AK should also be discounted cuz alot of people dont 3bet the flop in that spot. Against the range I listed, the hero is a 2-1 favorite, but if we discount AK/AQ by 50%, which I think is realistic, we are neutral on the turn. So since none of us are folding to a turn raise, check/calling down becomes the line that makes/saves us the most money in the long run. It doesnt matter that we may get "pwned" if we check/call down. We will get pwned even more by betting this turn.

Bet/folding the turn can be the best play, but we need to know the villain very well before we can take such a line with this strong of a hand, and this is seldom the case online. The surprise factor or the misread factor is usually too great to consider a nonshowdown line in this situation.

I have bet/folded with this strong of a hand many times in live play becuz I knew my opponent extremely well thus eliminating the surprise/misread factor. It is quite rare that we'll have as strong of a read established online and there is no indictation such a strong read exists here.

[waffle]

Posting Blind:

Bet down the turn and call if raised.

By check calling the turn and river you give your opponent too much of an opportunity to puss out and check through. He might smell a trap or just be less confident of his hand.

Calling down a turn raise and losing the hand is not the end of the world, especially in a big pot. I think some of you overengineer your play to avoid this situation.

Bet folding a hand this strong is obviously a play designed to exploit your opponent's tendency to rarely (semi)?bluff raise, and I don't feel I have enough information here to do it.