#1
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25NL - Good time to bluff?
Villian is 19/13/2 over 155 hands. I've played pretty straightforward against him up to this point. He seems like a thinking player, maybe even a 2+2er. I decided to float this flop because he cbets near 100% of the time and with the backdoor nut draw it didn't seem like such a bad time for a float. He checks turn as i expected so i bet. His river lead looks soooo weak. I obviously can't win by calling. Flush draw got there and I/other people do sometimes play flushdraws like this. What do you guys think about a raise? At this point I put him KQ-K10 trying to get to showdown cheaply, as well as some small flushes.
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - SB: $25.00 BB: $27.75 UTG: $16.80 CO: $45.00 Hero (BTN): $26.05 Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.00</font>, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds Flop: ($2.35) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">CO bets $1.75</font>, Hero calls $1.75 Turn: ($5.85) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, CO calls $3.50 River: ($12.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">CO bets $4.00</font> |
#2
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
Seems like either a weak K trying to get to showdown as you said, or a medium PP like 88-TT betting for value.
Either one would probably fold to a big raise, but it has to be successful an awful lot of the time to be +EV. |
#3
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
Honest question here, I'm not sure how the math would go: If I raise $10, I risk 10 to win 16, 5:8. So I have to win ~62% of the time to break even. Am I doing the math right? And if I was in his shoes, I lean towards folding all kings and mid pocket pairs near 100% of the time to a raise here unless I have a really good read. Anyone disagree/agree? I'd like to hear your thoughts.
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#4
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
You're risking 10 to win 16, which means you're getting 16:10 pot odds, or 1.6:1. That means he must fold 1/2.6 times to break even, or about 38% of the time.
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#5
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
Ah that sounds much better. I obviously suck at math, thanks for clarifying that.
Does anyone else have any comments now that we got the math out of the way? |
#6
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
but youre giving him nearly 5:1 to call with that raise
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#7
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
It will be 10 for him to win 22. That's not 5:1, right?
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#8
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
He only has to call $6 to see the raise. Which gives him 6:22 or 1:3.7 so he has to win 1/4.7 or 21% of the time to break even. Someone correct me if im wrong please.
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#9
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
Sometimes at 25NL I'll get a good read that someone is weak, and I'll make a largeish bet that I'd never call with the sort of hand I put them on. Sometimes they'll call, I'll see that my read was spot-on and yet they take the pot. Just make sure you think he's capable of folding a king, look for a high won at showdown % and high fold to turn/river bet numbers. I think a bluff looks good here if everything's in order.
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#10
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
IF you are gonna bluff this river, i think the only play is to move all in. I personally do not like bluffs like these at these stakes. I think your bluff looks much more menacing if you check behind on turn and raise his block on river. That line is cheaper as well. As played, I think you made your bluff on the turn, it didn't work, now villain is betting into you on river....I would fold.
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