200 bb's deep w/99 and a Maniac...but he's not the problem now!

[Worm75]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $167.70
Hero (BB): $56.70
UTG: $55.90
MP: $30.40
CO: $31.25
BTN: $35.25

Reads: <font color="blue">I 3-bet from the sb attempting to isolate the maniac on the button, plus playing 200BB deep vs him want to make sure that if I hit I'm playing for his stack.

Initial raiser cold calls too much, loves to call draws w/out proper odds. Is running 18/12/2.64 and is down this session from a couple of suckouts.

Hero should be seen as fairly tight and very aggressive. Got my stack by playing back at villain with TP/Gk when he raised flop on flush draw.

In the games at 100nl and above, I probably call here, but 25nl plays so much more passive than the games I used to play.</font>

Are we good even close to the right % to make this call +EV long term?? My initial thought here was the only hands that made sense were TT/JJ/Air, since AK/AQ probably 4-bet PF, and AA/KK/QQ smooth call here I think.

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $0.85</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $0.75, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.40</font>, CO calls $2.55, SB calls $2.55

Flop: ($10.20) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises all-in to $27.85</font>, Hero???

[Leviathan101]

what does SB do?

If he's that bad, I'd call.

[Worm75]

Sorry, SB folded

[Leviathan101]

I just reread your post. I thought the CO was the maniac. Anyways, you are probably way behind his range here, so I'd fold.

Also your original post said maniac was button, you might wanna fix that.

[Maunzekater]

[ QUOTE ]

In the games at 100nl and above, I probably call here, but 25nl plays so much more passive than the games I used to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have never played above 50NL, but at 25NL a c/r AI on the flop is a VERY strong move (he is not a maniac).

Your odd are not great, your equity against a range of 88+, AQs+ is 32%. Even if he has a flush draw and two overcards, you are flipping and against a likely high PP you are in very bad shape.

And he knows that your are very aggressive and will lead the flop, so c/r AI is a very reasonable line for him if he has a high PP.

[wire]

Pick a better spot.

[resboard]

Something i noticed was you said you expect a 4bet from AQ and AK. I disgree. I have only played 35k hands of $25NL but I have not seen very many 4 bets. Everyone I have seen is AA or KK. I don't think there are many players who would 4bet AQ at this limit.

[sightless]

imo 99 is not the type of hand you wanna play oop vs a maniac in a 3bet pot.

[yntm3]

[ QUOTE ]
Something i noticed was you said you expect a 4bet from AQ and AK. I disgree. I have only played 35k hands of $25NL but I have not seen very many 4 bets. Everyone I have seen is AA or KK. I don't think there are many players who would 4bet AQ at this limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was also going to say this.

In saying that, I just fold a find a better spot.

[orig!naL]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he has a flush draw and two over cards, you are flipping

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain would be around 56% to hit.

This hand is an easy fold. I wouldn't even think about calling.