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#1
08-25-2007, 12:19 AM
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10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
Tonight I ran into a ton of hands where I end up in a raised pot out of position, and by the turn I have a solid 10 to 15 outs and I'm first to act. In situations where I put in a 3rd bet preflop and I have the initiative, it's just bet, bet, and then evaluate the river.
But in other hands when I check/call the flop, and then catch the big draw on the turn, is there really any point at all to doing more then check/call ? I've never seen anyone fold any pair there. Anyone suggest a line that gives me a chance to win the hand without hitting ? I think I'm asking for something that doesn't exist, because even A high calls those turn cr's these days on stars... 
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#2
08-25-2007, 02:29 AM
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Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
I usually just c/c these too. While you can win without a showdown, its not that easy and you get pounded those times when they have top pair or an overpair.
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#3
08-25-2007, 02:53 AM
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Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
It so depends on the board and previous action - there are sometimes where you can profitably C/R and fire river UI, and times where putting in extra action on the turn is pure spewdom. Post some specific hands and let's discuss board textures...
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#4
08-25-2007, 04:02 AM
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Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
one other factor is whether or not we are willing to showdown UI. this has a huge impact on how I play my draws.
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#5
08-25-2007, 06:23 AM
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Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
i'm struggling with picked up draws on the turn as well. Bad players, oblivious to all this, will call anyway and good players notice the possible semibluff spot and might even put you to the test with a 3-bet. So it's really situational. I will certainly try it against very low Wts Types, whenever i feel weakness. But for the most part i agree: just c/c especially with SD Value.
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#6
08-25-2007, 06:34 AM
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Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
[ QUOTE ]
I've never seen anyone fold any pair there. [/ QUOTE ] How do you actually see anyone fold anything There is plenty of spots where you can c/r a good draw. If you have 10-15 out you need very little FE. If the pot is 6BB including villains bet you pay 2 to win 6. With 15 outs you will suck out with about 35% prob so your FE for the play to be +EV doesnt need to be more than 15-18%. (Do the precise calcs yourself if you dont trust me, I am prolly wrong)
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#7
08-25-2007, 06:49 AM
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Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
Yeah, usually you need to get about 10-15% folds. Which is not much. Only one in 8-10 times or so it has to work. People do fold you know.
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#8
08-25-2007, 09:02 AM
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Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I've never seen anyone fold any pair there. [/ QUOTE ] How do you actually see anyone fold anything There is plenty of spots where you can c/r a good draw. If you have 10-15 out you need very little FE. If the pot is 6BB including villains bet you pay 2 to win 6. With 15 outs you will suck out with about 35% prob so your FE for the play to be +EV doesnt need to be more than 15-18%. (Do the precise calcs yourself if you dont trust me, I am prolly wrong) [/ QUOTE ] I see what they fold by propositional logic I guess. I cr my A high big draw, with intention of showing down. I fire the river, they call and show that on the turn they had 3rd pair, or even an under pair to the board. And it happens a lot, despite how frequently I check raise made hands too...
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#9
08-25-2007, 09:13 AM
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Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I've never seen anyone fold any pair there. [/ QUOTE ] How do you actually see anyone fold anything There is plenty of spots where you can c/r a good draw. If you have 10-15 out you need very little FE. If the pot is 6BB including villains bet you pay 2 to win 6. With 15 outs you will suck out with about 35% prob so your FE for the play to be +EV doesnt need to be more than 15-18%. (Do the precise calcs yourself if you dont trust me, I am prolly wrong) [/ QUOTE ] I see what they fold by propositional logic I guess. I cr my A high big draw, with intention of showing down. I fire the river, they call and show that on the turn they had 3rd pair, or even an under pair to the board. And it happens a lot, despite how frequently I check raise made hands too... [/ QUOTE ] And by that you can conclude that they never fold a pair? Plenty of villains that will fold a pair vs a turn c/r. Besides you are not only trying to fold pairs. If you have Q high you want to fold K high and A high as well. You can not take a general approach to whether to c/r a good draw or not on the turn. It depends on so many things. But thinking that nobody ever folds a pair is wrong.
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#10
08-25-2007, 10:07 AM
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Re: 10-15 outers, heads up, out of position
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I've never seen anyone fold any pair there. [/ QUOTE ] How do you actually see anyone fold anything There is plenty of spots where you can c/r a good draw. If you have 10-15 out you need very little FE. If the pot is 6BB including villains bet you pay 2 to win 6. With 15 outs you will suck out with about 35% prob so your FE for the play to be +EV doesnt need to be more than 15-18%. (Do the precise calcs yourself if you dont trust me, I am prolly wrong) [/ QUOTE ] I see what they fold by propositional logic I guess. I cr my A high big draw, with intention of showing down. I fire the river, they call and show that on the turn they had 3rd pair, or even an under pair to the board. And it happens a lot, despite how frequently I check raise made hands too... [/ QUOTE ] And by that you can conclude that they never fold a pair? Plenty of villains that will fold a pair vs a turn c/r. Besides you are not only trying to fold pairs. If you have Q high you want to fold K high and A high as well. You can not take a general approach to whether to c/r a good draw or not on the turn. It depends on so many things. But thinking that nobody ever folds a pair is wrong. [/ QUOTE ] i never fold a pair [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] another thing worth mentioning. There are a lot of players, that when they bet the turn, they can't have a hand that can fold. You will get 3bet, or called down. So if a player checks behind weak made hands, and calls a river bet, this play isn't going to work. Just make sure you have a read on the player before you try.
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