Just Curious

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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ILP,
In this spot I'd weight the tag's range more heavily towards a pair cuz a lot of the gutshot hands would have 3-bet or folded preflop. I don't think he's folding any pairs and he probably bets them all if you check unless you have been screwplaying him a ton recently.

So, since he may raise us with Ax and we will have to fold our 5-outer and he should probably bet every hand we beat for us if we check, I think c/c is the best option.

On the river I'd be inclined to c/f if he's predictable and c/c otherwise.

I generally hate this postflop line so I'll be eagerly looking forward to being proven wrong.

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If youre wrong, I cant prove it. C/C, C/F is what I did. Nice post vmacosta. I agree with everything you said. Im also glad to see that other good/winning players like you, (Shapie & Heisen) advocate this line.

I felt the play was close between check/call turn check/fold river or simply to check/fold turn. I figured it was worth one more big bet hoping he somehow had a 5 or some other lesser made hand. I do agree that he would most likely raise preflop with any gutshot draw and I think if he did call with these gutshot hands he may still raise the flop with these hands.

Also im certainly not worried about my C/C C/F line being exploitable, becuz I rarely take this line in this spot. I still hate this line though.

I think against an aggressive retard C/C,C/C will show a nice profit, but against a good player on this specific board Im convinced putting in 2BB's from the turn on is a -EV play.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

"I agree with C/Call on the turn for reasons mentioned. The river is where I'm gonna make all my mistakes. C/F might be best like 75% of the time."

I think I need a read to C/C the river against a guy with those stats. If I dont have one cuz Im too lazy to pay attention then I think I have to C/F

"I think one important fact to consider here is that many a tag will peel this flop hoping for a free turn card with a weak draw (one arguement against checking the turn) or to see if you will give up your bluff when he is holding 44."

I think most tags would 3bet me preflop with 44's and most broadway cards thus making it significantly less likely he has a draw or a weak made hand. Im basically check/calling the turn hoping the tag has 5x or some other surprise lesser hand and gives up on the river.

"I'll put another question out there. If he checks behind the turn do we give him a FSD on a river brick. I think yes because he will check the turn with draws more than he will with a vulnerable hand like 44. This way we give him one last chance to bet a busted draw. Do we agree??"

If the tag checks behind on the turn I have no idea what to do on the river but im not betting. The river will be close between check/call and check/fold. There are so many tags out there that would check/behind the turn with Qx and then bet the river that I still would want to C/F river but its very close. Certainly if the tag somehow had a draw/air or a hand like 5x or 44s he should know that he has to bet the turn since I will have 6 outs or more so often, so if a tag checks the turn I would weight him heavily to have a hand like Qx.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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b/f I guess. I suppose he could peel like JT or 5x. KJ usually 3 bets pf but its possible too. This doesnt look like a spot where he bluff raises JT or KJ. I hate c/f and c/c but I cant really explain why.

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I think that if he had JT he would likely 3bet me preflop or raise the flop. Besides this logic, the fact that I have a Ten in my hand also significantly hurts my chances of being against JT/QT/KT.

If he has 5x, I think were better off check/calling the turn since that way we avoid getting freeshowdown raised by a lesser hand, and I believe most tags will give up the river UI with this hand.

Simply put, I dont think we will have the best hand often enough or the tag will not have a folding hand often enough to make bet/fold worth it. I like check/calling for the reasons vmcost mentioned.

[Leader]

I would c/f the turn without some special read. Most TAGs fold a PP on this flop (or 3b pf) and GS usually 3-bet pf. So we beat mostly nothing and he's not folding a better hand. Plus when he has a GS he may just check it figuring we've gone into c/c mode with a Q/pp.

edit: There's K5/65, but I don't thats enough to continue.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I would c/f the turn without some special read. Most TAGs fold a PP on this flop (or 3b pf) and GS usually 3-bet pf. So we beat mostly nothing and he's not folding a better hand. Plus when he has a GS he may just check it figuring we've gone into c/c mode with a Q/pp.

edit: There's K5/65, but I don't thats enough to continue.

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Good post Leader. I am still not sure which line is better between check/fold turn and check/call turn, check/fold river. Your post along with the others helps confirm my initial conclusion: That the strategic choice is between these two lines.

[Heisenb3rg]

The reason to c/c the turn as opposed to c/f is for three reasons (although I agree its definitly close).

1) You want to c/f the MAJORITY of your hands here on the turn. I open a HUGE range from my SB , so if the TAG is even mildy observant he can float me on boards like this and own me silly.

2)There is still a good number of 5x type hands in his range
which you are ahead of, that will very likely check this river (may not fire turn).

3) you have 5 outs to outdraw any A/Q hand.

Id rather have 9x here than JJ

[jstill]

good thread,

i dont have any strong opinion, point one in heisbergs last post always made me want to reconsider not ck folding, i dont think many of the true tags tho ever capitalized on this weakness of mine and started floating. I think this because I ck call the turn enough in this spot with other hands where my play is not totally unblanced, and if they were floating to bet the turn when I ck'd often (because it was profitable for them to do so or atleast they believe this) I would have seen hands like that show up more often. If they did or they were more lagtag or aggro I adjusted and added some more marginal ck calls that I might ck fold vs weaker tags.


I think its important how many hands the tag defends. if hes solid hes got alot of 5x hands J5s 75s type hands more than just 65 and A5 ect (I think some weak tight tags dont even defend like K5s Q5s here pretty weak play tho this villain probably doesnt fit that mold, but hands like K5 and Q5o probably arent in his range so 5x's not an overwhelming portion of his range). If hes weak here (in blind battles) he wont have as many obviously which just brings it all closer to ck fold (if not already, there again I'm not sure).

I'll certainly reconsider here tho, but I do think many tags just call JT pre fwiw (or raise the flop most of the time), if i saw them not raise JT on the flop (or do it on the turn) or not 3bet KJ that would all be an insta note of course so I dont think that gutter hands are really part of most tags range here unless uve seen it.

[sharpie]

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I think its important how many hands the tag defends. if hes solid hes got alot of 5x hands J5s 75s type hands more than just 65 and A5 ect (I think some weak tight tags dont even defend like K5s Q5s here pretty weak play tho this villain probably doesnt fit that mold, but hands like K5 and Q5o probably arent in his range so 5x's not an overwhelming portion of his range). If hes weak here (in blind battles) he wont have as many obviously which just brings it all closer to ck fold (if not already, there again I'm not sure).

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Is it just me, or do otherwise tight semi weak TAGs defend alot in the BB against your SB open? Most seem to call any 2 suited and junky offsuit hands that I sometimes wouldn't even play. Then again could be selective memory.

[Carmine]

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I think its important how many hands the tag defends. if hes solid hes got alot of 5x hands J5s 75s type hands more than just 65 and A5 ect (I think some weak tight tags dont even defend like K5s Q5s here pretty weak play tho this villain probably doesnt fit that mold, but hands like K5 and Q5o probably arent in his range so 5x's not an overwhelming portion of his range). If hes weak here (in blind battles) he wont have as many obviously which just brings it all closer to ck fold (if not already, there again I'm not sure).

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Is it just me, or do otherwise tight semi weak TAGs defend alot in the BB against your SB open? Most seem to call any 2 suited and junky offsuit hands that I sometimes wouldn't even play. Then again could be selective memory.

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Sharpie the fact of the matter is (and you may very welll be aware of this) that the BB needs to be at least calling a majority percentage of the time in order to keep the SB from showing an immediate profit by stealing with any two cards. How much $$ is in the pot from the blind structures is going to affect the minimum call percentages (and should also affect how often the SB should be stealing). So when one needs to be defending a minimum of 60 or 70% of the time you should expect to see some ragedy holdings. Of course the BB should be adjusting to the SB steal percentages also.

[vmacosta]

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I think its important how many hands the tag defends. if hes solid hes got alot of 5x hands J5s 75s type hands more than just 65 and A5 ect (I think some weak tight tags dont even defend like K5s Q5s here pretty weak play tho this villain probably doesnt fit that mold, but hands like K5 and Q5o probably arent in his range so 5x's not an overwhelming portion of his range). If hes weak here (in blind battles) he wont have as many obviously which just brings it all closer to ck fold (if not already, there again I'm not sure).

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Is it just me, or do otherwise tight semi weak TAGs defend alot in the BB against your SB open? Most seem to call any 2 suited and junky offsuit hands that I sometimes wouldn't even play. Then again could be selective memory.

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Sharpie the fact of the matter is (and you may very welll be aware of this) that the BB needs to be at least calling a majority percentage of the time in order to keep the SB from showing an immediate profit by stealing with any two cards. How much $$ is in the pot from the blind structures is going to affect the minimum call percentages (and should also affect how often the SB should be stealing). So when one needs to be defending a minimum of 60 or 70% of the time you should expect to see some ragedy holdings. Of course the BB should be adjusting to the SB steal percentages also.

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Carmine,
i think the insight sharpie was making is that some tags who frequently play suboptimally from the blinds (folding BB to steal HU >40%, for instance) somehow get into prick-measuring contests in blind battles. I've noticed it too and it tilts me when a guy like chezlaw or some other 18/14 tighty owns me with a 93s/85o defense.