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#21
07-08-2007, 10:45 AM
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Re: RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
If your read is that he is a "good 10-20 live player" you should bet this turn all day. I really like a turn check in the same spot against a "good 2-4 online player" though. [/ QUOTE ] Once a duece hits the turn in this spot, I am never betting the turn against anyone I think can fold 7x here whether theyre a good player or bad player. Assuming the villain cant have Kx or a FD there is just too much money to be made by keeping 7x in this hand. I realize the villain actually did have a FD, but thats why poker is a fun game becuz youre almost always working with imperfect information. 
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#22
07-08-2007, 11:12 AM
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Re: RESULTS
ILP,
Why is a fd so unlikely bc he checked? He knows you are good/aggro.... maybe he is afraid of you raising for one of many reasons and shutting out the field. Whereas if you bet he will get excellent odds on his draw and the chance to pump. Sure, it might get checked through and he will lose value in that case, but all things considered it does not seem totally illogical....
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#23
07-08-2007, 11:32 AM
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Re: RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
ILP, Why is a fd so unlikely bc he checked? He knows you are good/aggro.... maybe he is afraid of you raising for one of many reasons and shutting out the field. Whereas if you bet he will get excellent odds on his draw and the chance to pump. Sure, it might get checked through and he will lose value in that case, but all things considered it does not seem totally illogical.... [/ QUOTE ] I think a FD is extremely illogical for any decent aggressive player in this spot. He's second to last to act in a decent sized pot on the exact kind of board where a semibluff bet has the highest probability of winning this pot unimproved on the flop or turn. Not betting a FD in this spot is a critical mistake IMO. Not betting here is analogous to not doubling down in Blackjack when you have an 11 vs the dealers 6 showing. I did not think this player was capable of making these kind of "critical mistakes". I was wrong.
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#24
07-08-2007, 11:38 AM
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Re: RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ILP, Why is a fd so unlikely bc he checked? He knows you are good/aggro.... maybe he is afraid of you raising for one of many reasons and shutting out the field. Whereas if you bet he will get excellent odds on his draw and the chance to pump. Sure, it might get checked through and he will lose value in that case, but all things considered it does not seem totally illogical.... [/ QUOTE ] I think a FD is extremely illogical for any decent aggressive player in this spot. He's second to last to act in a decent sized pot on the exact kind of board where a semibluff bet has the highest probability of winning this pot unimproved on the flop or turn. Not betting a FD in this spot is a critical mistake IMO. Not betting here is analogous to not doubling down in Blackjack when you have an 11 vs the dealers 6 showing. I did not think this player was capable of making these kind of "critical mistakes". I was wrong. [/ QUOTE ] The pot is 6-way live. It being a "critical mistake" is insane.
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#25
07-08-2007, 11:43 AM
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Re: RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] ILP, Why is a fd so unlikely bc he checked? He knows you are good/aggro.... maybe he is afraid of you raising for one of many reasons and shutting out the field. Whereas if you bet he will get excellent odds on his draw and the chance to pump. Sure, it might get checked through and he will lose value in that case, but all things considered it does not seem totally illogical.... [/ QUOTE ] I think a FD is extremely illogical for any decent aggressive player in this spot. He's second to last to act in a decent sized pot on the exact kind of board where a semibluff bet has the highest probability of winning this pot unimproved on the flop or turn. Not betting a FD in this spot is a critical mistake IMO. Not betting here is analogous to not doubling down in Blackjack when you have an 11 vs the dealers 6 showing. I did not think this player was capable of making these kind of "critical mistakes". I was wrong. [/ QUOTE ] The pot is 6-way live. It being a "critical mistake" is insane. [/ QUOTE ] On this specific board, after 4 opponents have checked, with only one person behind, I think checking a FD is a critical mistake. There is no one in the world who can change my opinion on this point.
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#27
07-08-2007, 12:17 PM
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Re: RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
Betting or checking doesn't really matter to much here, definately not critical, I would check betting doesn't accomplish much except for putting in extra money w/ your 37%er. [/ QUOTE ] If you think it is close between betting and checking in this specific spot then theres something about poker you dont understand.
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#28
07-08-2007, 12:22 PM
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Re: RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Betting or checking doesn't really matter to much here, definately not critical, I would check betting doesn't accomplish much except for putting in extra money w/ your 37%er. [/ QUOTE ] If you think it is close between betting and checking in this specific spot then theres something about poker you dont understand. [/ QUOTE ] It can be close, and it entirely depends on how everyone else in the hand plays the flop. e.g. You are you, and the four people we have position on play in this manner. They c/r Kings, c/c smaller pairs that have two pair outs, c/c flush draws and c/f everything else. They fold the 7x and 2x hands if they face a raise cold. Betting isn't particularly advantageous. Given your average 10-20 live game, of course it's a bet, but it's silly to think it's not close.
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#29
07-08-2007, 12:30 PM
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Re: RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
Given your average 10-20 live game, of course it's a bet, but it's silly to think it's not close. [/ QUOTE ] Well then I guess I must be a silly person. I dont think its close at all. If I checked a FD in this spot I would probably rack up my chips, go home, and never play poker again.
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#30
07-08-2007, 02:17 PM
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Re: RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Given your average 10-20 live game, of course it's a bet, but it's silly to think it's not close. [/ QUOTE ] Well then I guess I must be a silly person. I dont think its close at all. If I checked a FD in this spot I would probably rack up my chips, go home, and never play poker again. [/ QUOTE ] Can you elucidate your reasons for betting, in order of importance? From your previous post, I gather that the chance of winning UI on the turn is a major one. I'd assume pure value is another (ie, you do not want this getting checked thru). But anyway I don't think that check is a critical mistake either. You know I repsect your opinion, so I'd like to get a clearer understanding of your thoughts.
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