20$: AA fold preflop? (honestly!)

[sickofants]

Here's what you're scared of:

Unless BB is an idiot (you should know this by now), his calling range surely can't be any bigger than pairs 99+, AJs+, KQs. I'm sure you would agree that this is probably an overestimate of his probable calling range.

Given that you have AA, the respective probabilities of BB holding the hands described above, are:

99 through KK: 6/1225 each
AA: 1/1225
AJs, AQs, AKs: 4/1225 each
AQo, AKo: 12/1225 each

So we have that BB will call with probability 67/1225. Since I can't be bothered to work out the probability of AA beating AA and it is so small, I'll discount that and say you will have a chance of busting out of 66/1225. Having done a few rough estimates, the probability of busting out to these hands, on average is around 16%.

So, we can conclude that you're worried about the 16% chance of busting out that will occur no more than 66/1225 times. That's about 1/116 times. Hardly once in a blue moon, I guess.

You're gonna need those chips eventually, however, and this seems like a great spot to take some to me.

[Josem]

reading this thread makes me happy that i rarely read strategy threads in this forum any more.

a) this is clearly a push

and

b) if you doubt (a) get a calculator and figure it out


i don't understand how there is much discussion about this.

[Velocity]

[ QUOTE ]
I played mildly hungover all day to get supernova. I am going to see the new Die Hard movie and I don't know if there is any food in my house. Will report back later.

[/ QUOTE ]

it is well past lunch time and we are all waiting with bated breath, what did you end up eating?

[hantori]

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