A Hand I Played

[Leader]

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How many hands is that read over? I'm not partially inclined to trust the WtSD number unless there's quite a few hands. If we assume that's his real WtSD, then this is essentially a pure bluff as he would almost always fold worse hands on the turn along with some better ones. So does he have a better hand and fold it one in nine times? I'm going to guess and say no on the basis that he's probably not good enough to take a call-fold line here.

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Stat read is over approx 3,000 hands. I will respond to the rest of your post later Leader.

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95% confidence interval FWIW: 25.42%-34.583%

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I think that I just call down from the turn on.

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There's absolutely nothing wrong with this line, that is what I do most of the time in this situation.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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How many hands is that read over? I'm not partially inclined to trust the WtSD number unless there's quite a few hands. If we assume that's his real WtSD, then this is essentially a pure bluff as he would almost always fold worse hands on the turn along with some better ones. So does he have a better hand and fold it one in nine times? I'm going to guess and say no on the basis that he's probably not good enough to take a call-fold line here.

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Im not convinced the villain will always fold 4x and 2x on the turn, I'm also not convinced that the villain will call the river with 9x. I realize these two statements contradict each other but I'm ok with that.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I really don't think the river bet is too bad. Ace really doesn't change much except for that it completes exactly 53 and we hold 2 of the 5's reducing the combinations. The only problem I see with it is that it makes him unlikely to call with a 4 now because everything we could be bluffing basically got there.

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It is important to note that the ace on the river is a complete blank becuz the villain would likely raise all Ax hands from the SB. As you mentioned Burnsabre, 53 is the only hand the ace on the river hits and if we assume the villain folds 53o preflop then theres only 2 combo's of 53 left, 5d3d and 5s3s. So the ace on the river is very unlikely to help the villain.

Also if the villain is unlikely to call with 4x on the river after I take this line, he may not call the river with 9x either. The reverse is also true: If the villain will autocall the river with 9x, he may call with 4x or 2x.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I don't think anyone ever folds a 9, but they play this way basically every time. 4x or 2x might fold now, but even if they always call, those hands combined are probably less likely than 9x because of two reasons:

1. They're less playable hands, even for just completing in the SB. Like, I'm sure this guy isn't open completing J2o or T4o, but I bet he plays 96o.
2. He called your turn raise.

There is also the chance that he check raised the flop with an Ax gutshot hand like A3 or A5 (or one of the playable 2x or 4x hands like A2 or A4). There's also the chance he check raised the flop with air like JTo and now bet/called the turn with his newfound top pair.

River bet can't be good.

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The villain cant have Ax, he wouldve raised preflop. I think many player types will fold 9x after I take this line on that board and I believe this guy falls into that category. I agree with you that 9x is more likely than 4x or 2x given his turn call, but I dont completely rule out 4x and 2x from his range on the river.

I also wouldnt worry about the Jack hitting the villain on the turn, that card is basically a blank given the flop action.

About your statement that the river bet cant be good. I actually strongly disagree with you on that one. I personally love the river bet.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I think it's a pretty bad bluff. I guess I'm just assuming that you're bluffing - you just dont seem like the type that sees putting in 3bbs on the big streets against a seemingly reasonable opponent as a valuable play with a pair of fives.

i think you were making a FSDR on the turn and now you're taking a shot at folding out a nine. I don't think it will work nearly enough.

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Who says I was bluffing? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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are you value betting or bluffing on the river?

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I dont know. That's the beauty of my river bet.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I like everything until the river bet.

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Against most player types I'm checking the river.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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i like preflop and flop play totally standard i think. The turn raise if he wont often bet his air/missed draws/4x 2x on the river I like it more. Given his stats tho he could be the type to just keep firing so I probably just call the turn and river, if I raise the turn I definitely dont bet this river. I dont think enough of his range is 9x and folds it or 4x 2x hands that dont fold the turn AND pay off this river.

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There's nothing wrong with just calling down from the flop raise. Thats the line I take most of the time. I agree that my river play is debatable, but as I said to Miles, I still like my river bet alot vs this opponent. Against the vast majority of people out there, river is a standard check.

[MacGuyV]

How does a guy you have no read on w/ average looking stats not fall under the "vast majority" category?