A Hand I Played

[ILOVEPOKER929]

This hand happened online in a 5-10 game. No read on villain besides stats which are 36/19/1.61/WTS 30.

I'm in the BB with 5h5c. Everone folds to the villain who completes in the SB. I raise and he calls.

FLOP comes out 9h 4d 2d. He checks, I bet and he raises, and I call.

TURN is the Jc. The villain bets, I raise, and he calls.

RIVER is the Ac. He checks and I bet...

[yourface]

I think the turn looks like a good spot for a free showdown raise. villan has a lot of draws in his range as well as 9x and 4x hands. are you value betting or bluffing on the river?

[sethypooh21]

I like everything until the river bet.

[jstill]

i like preflop and flop play totally standard i think. The turn raise if he wont often bet his air/missed draws/4x 2x on the river I like it more. Given his stats tho he could be the type to just keep firing so I probably just call the turn and river, if I raise the turn I definitely dont bet this river. I dont think enough of his range is 9x and folds it or 4x 2x hands that dont fold the turn AND pay off this river.

[Leader]

How many hands is that read over? I'm not partially inclined to trust the WtSD number unless there's quite a few hands. If we assume that's his real WtSD, then this is essentially a pure bluff as he would almost always fold worse hands on the turn along with some better ones. So does he have a better hand and fold it one in nine times? I'm going to guess and say no on the basis that he's probably not good enough to take a call-fold line here.

[aargh57]

I think that I just call down from the turn on. When he bets the turn is your thinking that he may be betting a draw? To me, a villain like this would c/r the flop and donk the turn with a draw or a good hand. If he's got a draw, then when I call call on Turn and River then I still make 2 bets if he doesn't catch. If he's got a good hand I only lose 2 by doing this. If I raise the turn, now I still make only 2 bets when he's got a draw but I still lose at least 2 if he 3 bets or may end up folding the best hand if he 3 bets the turn or donks the river on a missed draw.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
How many hands is that read over? I'm not partially inclined to trust the WtSD number unless there's quite a few hands. If we assume that's his real WtSD, then this is essentially a pure bluff as he would almost always fold worse hands on the turn along with some better ones. So does he have a better hand and fold it one in nine times? I'm going to guess and say no on the basis that he's probably not good enough to take a call-fold line here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stat read is over approx 3,000 hands. I will respond to the rest of your post later Leader.

[Burnsabre]

I really don't think the river bet is too bad. Ace really doesn't change much except for that it completes exactly 53 and we hold 2 of the 5's reducing the combinations. The only problem I see with it is that it makes him unlikely to call with a 4 now because everything we could be bluffing basically got there.

[milesdyson]

I don't think anyone ever folds a 9, but they play this way basically every time. 4x or 2x might fold now, but even if they always call, those hands combined are probably less likely than 9x because of two reasons:

1. They're less playable hands, even for just completing in the SB. Like, I'm sure this guy isn't open completing J2o or T4o, but I bet he plays 96o.
2. He called your turn raise.

There is also the chance that he check raised the flop with an Ax gutshot hand like A3 or A5 (or one of the playable 2x or 4x hands like A2 or A4). There's also the chance he check raised the flop with air like JTo and now bet/called the turn with his newfound top pair.

River bet can't be good.

[jba]

maybe I dont pay enough respect to that wtsd stat. but it's a blind battle and he started out somewhat weak and has indicated that he's picked something up. I think that changes the dynamic enough that you can't just look and say "oh I think he folds too much".

I think it's a pretty bad bluff. I guess I'm just assuming that you're bluffing - you just dont seem like the type that sees putting in 3bbs on the big streets against a seemingly reasonable opponent as a valuable play with a pair of fives.

i think you were making a FSDR on the turn and now you're taking a shot at folding out a nine. I don't think it will work nearly enough.