SuperFish Returns

[poker_n00b]

River is going to be check fold more often. if villain had some str8 draw than that 4 or 9 might have paired him and he ll prolly call u down (assuming hes a fish). If player tends to be more solid I bet river.

[Heisenb3rg]

The argument for semi bluffing the flop here is that it was checked to the last position who bet, therefore it could be a bluff or a weak hand that he could be pushed off.
However, because he cold called pre-flop, a Q could very well have hit him. You also dont know what the rest of the field is going to do. You could also get 3 bet.

While I think semi-bluffing is profitable here, I think the passive line is even more so.

By encouraging people to "peel a card" you may get them to hit a hand which will pay you off. Since the semi bluff wont work that often, you wont win the pot very much, and the extra bets gained in this situation will more than make up for youre fold equity IMO.

Had you had the ace of clubs id be more inclined to check raise semi-bluff to push a better ace off his hand, making your outs good, but would probabily still take the passive route. In a pot of this size , contrary to a lot of poker literautre, I believe that the extra bets more than make up for the time you hit you're overcard and win the pot.

Also as played, definitly bet the turn, and really not sure about the river. It's a very read specific thing. On average in this situation im guessing it's pretty damn near 0 EV. So Id take into consider other factors , IE how I want my image to look.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

First, DavidC and Caddy mentioned the idea of folding preflop. Folding in this spot with anything suited is what ive done most of my career. So why did I call? Well its becuz of 2+2ers like True. Here was my thought process preflop: "Im bored and wanna play, True says calling with anything suited getting 7-1 is a +EV play, screw it, im calling. Now on to the flop play.

Given the large pot size(4BB+ on the flop is considered large to me), the texture of the board, and the nature of the flop bettor, and the action that transpired, I believe that checkraising the flop is the unequivocal best play. When the pot gets large, I believe taking the line that maximizes our chances of winning this pot trumps any value strategy. When the last person to act bets this flop he can have many weak hands/draws. Judging from his stats, I believe he is loose enough, and aggressive enough to bet any straight draw on this board. For example: I dont see this guy folding 54s preflop even for 2 bets. So when the villain bet the flop, and the SB folded, I felt that checkraising to get the PFR out of the way was my best line here. My reasoning was, although I dont believe this guy will ever fold a pair, If he's betting somekind of a straight draw or flush draw, and I successfully isolate him with my flop raise, I will now get to win all the pots where we both miss our draws. So by checkraising the flop, I am already setting myself up for a very profitable river bluff, if the villain gets that far which I judged was likely. I believe this is the line that will win me the most pots in the long run, and I believed the potsize justified this line.

I would also like to add, that if the SB had called the flop, I would now just smooth call the flop cuz the chances of winning this pot unimproved are low enough to now simply play my hand for value and induce moe calls to pay off my draw when it hits. Another thing, If the flop had come out Qc 7c 2h, I would not checkraise the flop becuz the chances that my opponent has a made hand that he wont fold are too high to warrant such a play. In this scenario, I would call the flop and let the PFR make a loose peel. So board texture and the fact that the SB folded played an important role here for my flop decision. Okay now back to the action.

After I checkraised the flop and the PFR folded and the Flop bettor just called, betting the turn no matter what hit was mandatory becuz on rare occasions I'll get lucky and he'll fold, and most of the time when he calls the turn, I will still set myself up with a very profitable river bluff by keeping the aggressive initiative. So I bet, and he called.

The River: First I would like to say that I hated the turn card and the river card. If my opponent had a straight draw, he has to have atleast a pair now. This meant that the profitability of a river bluff has now been severly punctured. The villain can still have a higher flush draw or some other illogical unpaired hand that he shouldnt of bet the flop or called the turn with, but nonetheless, bluffing in this spot is a marginal play at best. However with 8 big bets in the middle, I still felt that betting here had to be +EV. Somehow I felt my opponent would fold more than 1/9 times but I could certainly be wrong.

Kwaz also mentioned the idea that the turn and river card were actually good cards for me if we look at the hand from the villains perspective, since he will have to be convinced that if we were on somekind of a draw we probably paired up also, meaning the villain is more likely to fold Ace-high/king-high type hands. I never looked at this hand from the villains perspective which is a mistake since we should always look at a hand from as many perspectives as possible.

Anyways, with so much money in the pot, and having only Ten high, I hopelessly fired the last barrel on the river. Several thoughts fleeted through my mind.... "Why did I have to call preflop to begin with? Curse all those 2+2ers and their love affair with suited trash! I hate True!" Then something miraculous happened. The villain folded, the pot shifted my way and I was a pro once again. Thank you 2+2, thank you True, thank you suited trash.

[True]

great hand, perfect. this is why you are dominating 10/20.

True

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
great hand, perfect. this is why you are dominating 10/20.

True

[/ QUOTE ]

uh, no comment [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Kwaz]

What was his WtSD?????

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
What was his WtSD?????

[/ QUOTE ]

I looked it up, it was 39.3%

PS: I will always practice a policy of not giving out handles, but I just noticed that this guy's name was Call_U_Dwn. How ironic, thank god he didnt live up to his name.

[True]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What was his WtSD?????

[/ QUOTE ]

I looked it up, it was 39.3%

PS: I will always practice a policy of not giving out handles, but I just noticed that this guy's name was Call_U_Dwn. How ironic, thank god he didnt live up to his name.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't think T high was good? I thought you were V-betting the river :P

True

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
great hand, perfect. this is why you are dominating 10/20.

True

[/ QUOTE ]

uh, no comment [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I retract my no comment.

[SparkyDog]

[ QUOTE ]

After I checkraised the flop and the PFR folded and the Flop bettor just called, betting the turn no matter what hit was mandatory becuz on rare occasions I'll get lucky and he'll fold, and most of the time when he calls the turn, I will still set myself up with a very profitable river bluff by keeping the aggressive initiative. So I bet, and he called.

The River: First I would like to say that I hated the turn card and the river card. If my opponent had a straight draw, he has to have atleast a pair now. This meant that the profitability of a river bluff has now been severly punctured. The villain can still have a higher flush draw or some other illogical unpaired hand that he shouldnt of bet the flop or called the turn with, but nonetheless, bluffing in this spot is a marginal play at best. However with 8 big bets in the middle, I still felt that betting here had to be +EV. Somehow I felt my opponent would fold more than 1/9 times but I could certainly be wrong.

Kwaz also mentioned the idea that the turn and river card were actually good cards for me if we look at the hand from the villains perspective, since he will have to be convinced that if we were on somekind of a draw we probably paired up also, meaning the villain is more likely to fold Ace-high/king-high type hands. I never looked at this hand from the villains perspective which is a mistake since we should always look at a hand from as many perspectives as possible.


[/ QUOTE ]

You can look at this hand from any perspective you like, but a 40/22 39WtSD will call you down with any ace-high that he bet on the flop and called the turn with, whether he should or not. In other words, the fact that all the straight draws hit or paired won't dissuade him from calling down; but due to how the cards filled out any draws he'll be calling down with a lot more of the hands he couldn't showdown UI.

Another thing I disagree with is how you seem to think the river bet is "hopeless". I think it has one of the highest EV's of any streets as played, but the only reason that's so is because the pot was made so larger by the flop and turn bets. As I said in an earlier post when you checkraise and get it HU you're tying yourself to firing three barrels.