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#41
11-16-2007, 09:47 PM
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Re: uh-oh
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i folded. as did the other moron. [/ QUOTE ] Silly moron. I was sure he'd call. If Villain didn't show a bluff, though, I doubt he was bluffing. The amount of action/tilt you could achieve by showing a bluff here is through the roof. And it's not like you're going to be making a fold like that in the future anyway, is it? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] imo showing a bluff here would be very bad. [/ QUOTE ] Perhaps not . . . but can you blame me for trying to make you feel better? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] 
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#42
11-16-2007, 09:55 PM
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Re: uh-oh
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i folded. as did the other moron. [/ QUOTE ] Silly moron. I was sure he'd call. If Villain didn't show a bluff, though, I doubt he was bluffing. The amount of action/tilt you could achieve by showing a bluff here is through the roof. And it's not like you're going to be making a fold like that in the future anyway, is it? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] imo showing a bluff here would be very bad. [/ QUOTE ] Perhaps not . . . but can you blame me for trying to make you feel better? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] i appreciate the effort.
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#44
11-17-2007, 04:56 PM
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Re: uh-oh
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Thanks vma. I wondered about KQ as well when I was posting. I'm a bit surprised to see you discount QJ so heavily. If your range is correct, the pbob always has a made hand when he caps the flop. Given how easily exploited that is, I'd be surprised to see a good player not add about the right number of draws to his capping range, especially given that it costs so little getting 2:1 on his money. So, to sum up... it's pretty clear that calling here is the "default" play, and folding is exploitable but arguably correct since it's so difficult for villain to bluff-raise the "correct" amount here. It's fun to wonder though... what is pokerbob's flop capping range really? Care to give us some insight pbob? thanks, Eric [/ QUOTE ] i have KT or 33 here nearly always. [/ QUOTE ] How long have you been playing together? Does the villian know what you know... i.e. you always have set or top two here???
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#45
11-18-2007, 10:26 AM
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Re: uh-oh
a bluff from sb here while not impossible is a very sophisticated play and not worth worrying about. this is an easy fold.
c/ring the turn is better than capping the flop.
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#47
11-18-2007, 04:41 PM
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Re: uh-oh
I don't think you're winning this hand enough times. I just don't. I'd say you're going to be shown QcJc, or KcXc over 97% of the time here.
Also... When someone hestitates on the flop like that, only to quickly call the turn, it often means they picked up (in this case), a flush draw.
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#48
11-18-2007, 04:45 PM
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Re: uh-oh
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Tough spot. IMO, villain has made it clear that he may not call a raise. He's been looking for an excuse to fold this whole hand, and this may well push him over the edge. So you can't really count on the 3rd guy to eat up a lot of that 90% you need between you. [/ QUOTE ] I haven't played live a ton, but I got the exact opposite impression. This guy has deliberated, called, deliberated, called, deliberated, called. For him to fold on the end getting 16:1 and not get to see his opponent's cards, after all that pain he's put himself through, just seems really unlikely to me. [/ QUOTE ] I guess we'll see in the results! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] From a game theory POV, your read is important though... if 3rd guy will always call, then we can fold 33 unexploitably. Given that our hand is in the top echelon of our possible holdings though, we have to quite sure the 3rd guy is calling before we can think about folding. I don't think we can be that sure, so I call. -eric [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand: Why would 3rd guy calling make you more inclined to fold? pbob's gonna have 3rd beat an overwhelming percentage of the time. If anything, I would be MORE inclined to call if I thought 3rd guy would call due to the extra bet overlay I'd be receiving. Please explain.
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#50
11-18-2007, 11:32 PM
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Re: uh-oh
[ QUOTE ]
bc if we are expecting the other guy to not fold even after the c/r then sb bluffing here would be even more incredibly unlikely than it already is? [/ QUOTE ] In other words, if we are expecting the other guy to call, then the sb must expect the same thing, therefore he's not bluffing? Do I understand correctly that this is what you're saying? I still say the other guy doesn't matter at all, bc we have him beat almost 100% of the time. The only consideration is whether or not the sb is bluffing (or if he could think his hand beats OP's). Personally, I think this will be less than 3% of the time, so a fold is in order. Although, I will say that I've made plays like this where I thought the good player in the hand would think I can't be c/r bluffing the river bc the pot is protected by a 3rd player. But this is only when I'm quite certain I have the 3rd player beat, but not the good player. It's a risky play to make, but can be worth it if the pot is big, which it certainly is here.
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