AA Hand I Thought Was Intersting

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise the turn. With a pot this size, I'm more worried about maximizing my chances to win the pot than saving bets when behind.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree, esp with the stat line on the villian. He's probably got a T with a pair, and he's just itching to get spank raised on the turn, and we protect our hand from the fish behind us.

This pot is so big, it's worth getting 3 bet buy the villain.

[StellarWind]

This flop is virtually ideal for what a 37/14 would limp UTG. He's going to flop two pair, a straight, or a set a big percentage of the time. That's the chilling background for this hand.

There is also a fair chance that one of the blinds has made something good on this board.

Assuming that you are still ahead of all three opponents then they must be playing a mixture of split pairs and straight draws. Collectively they probably have so many outs that your pot equity is only about 50% when you flopped the best hand. Counting the times you are behind your overall pot equity is probably closer to 25%.

3-betting the flop seems pointless. I certainly would hate to be capped and I don't want the initiative either. If everyone called my 3-bet and checked to me on the turn I'd have no idea what to do. Quite likely I'd make an expensive Sklansky mistake by either giving a horrible free card or running into a crushing checkraise. Much easier to just call the flop and let the turn action come to me.

The turn card gives me a junky gutshot but it often makes kings up for someone. When you are praying that everyone has just one pair on this board you have to wonder what their kickers might be. Certainly "king" has to be on the short list given the preflop play. Plus there could be an AQ in the blinds.

Should you raise the turn? That depends on your read on UTG and your feel for what is happening. Let's consider cases:

1. UTG is a player who rarely gives heavy action in multiway pots without a serious hand. This isn't about preflop stats, headsup aggression, or stealing loose pots. It's about willingness to slug it out postflop when the board is scary and you probably need to show the best hand to win. Many players of all types including some "big LAGs" get really passive in this type of pot. You recognize this type of player by being at the table and watching.

Quite possibly Hero's "feel" that UTG is credible is based upon a dim recognition that UTG is in fact such a player. If that's the case then you are in serious trouble. Villain very probably has you beaten and the calldown is clearcut.

2. UTG may have almost any overall style early on but he has good judgment on the big streets. This category includes all-around good players, "thinking" LAGs, and some preflop tight-passives.

Once again you are in serious trouble. Pumping a draw this hard in this situation just isn't good poker. Your bluff equity is terrible and you are provoking the PFR to raise in front of the field. Overplaying a split pair in this fashion is even dumber and shows no sense of danger.

3. UTG is aggressive in big multiway pots and has bad judgment postflop.

Raising the turn is still dangerous but now it's worth the risk. With a solid chance to have the best hand you need to fight to protect the pot. Even if you are beaten it's more likely to be just two pair so that you could have a reasonable number of outs to soften your mistake.

Conclusion: Hero should back his table feel in this matter. There is no universal answer to this problem.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

Excellent post StellarWind. I told Municipal that I liked his calldown play. I felt that he will be losing often enough here that protecting his hand is not worth it even in this large pot. I cannot prove that my recommendation is right. It would be nice if we could do a million simulations of the call down strategy, 3bet the flop strategy, and raise the turn strategy and see which one comes out ahead but we dont have that luxury.

I agree 100% with this quote: "Hero should back his table feel in this matter. There is no universal answer to this problem."

I think Municipal was playing his hand based on his feel of his opponent which is another reason I like his call down play after this flop sequence on this specific board.

[waffle]

Posting blind.

PF: Fine
Flop: Your equity will vary dramatically based on the turn card. It's very likely that it will be bet on the turn before your turn. So bet/call is fine.
Turn: K is certainly worse than a 2, but it's no 9. 9bb pot. Close your eyes and raise... I'm not really capable of folding if 3bet if it's HU.

[milesdyson]

i meant to respond to this post earlier, i just didn't. i would very rarely play this any differently.