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#11
09-12-2007, 01:40 PM
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
He only has to call $6 to see the raise. Which gives him 6:22 or 1:3.7 so he has to win 1/4.7 or 21% of the time to break even. Someone correct me if im wrong please. [/ QUOTE ] Nonono I meant raising 10 dollars not raising 6 TO 10 dollars. So yeah, I think it would be different. With regards to shoving, I felt that by not shoving (I only left myself like 4 dollars behind after my raise) it would look to my opponent that I really wanted at least a call here. Maybe I'm overcomplicating things but I felt this raise would appear less like a possible bluff to him, thus more likely to fold. Anyway he typed in chat "44 is good" and folded so I'm pretty happy with how it worked out. 
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#12
09-12-2007, 02:03 PM
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
Ah well in that case he has to call $10 into a $32.85 pot. 10:32.85 --> 1:3.285 or 1/4.285 ~23%. So his odds aren't that much worse. I think I'd fold rather than shoot again. I think if I was going to bluff I'd raise him on the flop thinking that a weak king will fold, and if he calls then you know you are behind.
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#13
09-12-2007, 02:08 PM
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
Ah well in that case he has to call $10 into a $32.85 pot. 10:32.85 --> 1:3.285 or 1/4.285 ~23%. So his odds aren't that much worse. I think I'd fold rather than shoot again. I think if I was going to bluff I'd raise him on the flop thinking that a weak king will fold, and if he calls then you know you are behind. [/ QUOTE ] Well I still "know I'm behind" with how i played it. But he did narrow his hand range significantly to something really weak with how he played it. Few winning TAGs at NL25 make this call with just a king (against other straightforward TAGs)unless they are feeling very spewy. At least that's what I think.
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#14
09-12-2007, 04:01 PM
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Re: 25NL - Good time to bluff?
meh prob looks more like a flush if you checked turn but OTOH does anyone ever make that river bet with a hand that calls a raise?
I mean that would be a pretty sick value bet with like a small PP. most likely TP ok kicker and like 88-TT are his range here and if you push he will fold most times IMO.
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