AK in a fish bowl. TPTK Call down or get out?

[SomthingOrOther]

so when the jack hits the river (wich it did) and mp1 lead (happend.

I cant beat AA JJ QQ 22 66 AQ AJ K10 and I tie AK, i beat A10.

i dont know how to (grunch?) this. help please?

[jstill]

help is above [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

did I answer ur question, that is the right answer: call the turn, call any river. Capping the flop is a spew btw for whoever said that.

I know how it feels when u ask a question and dont feel as though uve gotten closure on the issue so I just want to help ya out as a newbie. Im hoping ur last reply was written out before and not after my last reply, as I think I pretty explicitly laid out exactly why we shouldnt even consider folding even a "bad river" like a J T or flush river.

You can fold if the river goes MP leads, u call and a reasonable button raises, but I chose to leave that out previously as I thought it would maybe confuse the issue for u.

[MPB]

[ QUOTE ]
so when the jack hits the river (wich it did) and mp1 lead (happend.
I cant beat AA JJ QQ 22 66 AQ AJ K10 and I tie AK, i beat A10.
i dont know how to (grunch?) this. help please?

[/ QUOTE ]
At first, look at the hand range you can assign your villain on.
Obv he would not 3bet the flop with JJ or 66, so this hands are of no concern. Given the stats of our opponent most of the other hands you made up to beat you are completey ridiculous to assume he would play them in EP, not even talking about raising.
So the hands that you might be facing are basically QQ, AJ+. Even if you rule AJ (so I can't see a reason to do so) calling down is the right move and Aaron has already given the number of possible combinations for the hands and shown you ex<ctly why, so what do you want more?

[SomthingOrOther]

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u expect him to lead any river after the line hes taken, the J really changes very little and it is still a VERY VERY trivial call. Sure the J sucks becuz it takes away one hand he mite be overplaying but still.... when u get to the river u call any river becuz ur getting 15 or 16:1 with the overcall which means he only has to have AK 1 in 7 times for ur river call to be +EV and thus the better option rather than folding.

This possibility alone is MUCH MUCH MORE than enough to justify the turn and river calls even if his range is only AK AA QQ and AQ after the flop turn and river here since u'll chop the pot vs this range 6 out of 16 times, far more than 1 out of 7. Not to mention hes not that passive and could have AJ AT A9s here ect at times or who knows KJ.

This is one of those places where if you couldnt reason this out, ur missing alot of the thinking involved in EV calculations, hand reading and combination analysis that are essential tools for success in limit hold em, even at the micro levels.

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ok but isnt that only if we're heads up?

[jstill]

I was trying to give u a way to look at the hand more or less or spots like this in the future.

The only thing that really changes with button being behind us is how often him having us beat or chopping with cuts into the times we chop or beat MP. Hes so terrible though look at his stats, and Id expect him to cap the flop or raise the turn with any of the better hands in his capping range AA QQ AQ or AK, so its only a question of how often we beat MP but chop with button (again I cant imagine a 90/15/3 playing TPTK so passively). Its unlikely this rare occurance will cut into our equity to the point where we can no longer call profitably. Either way though its such a clear call HU since we chop like a third of the time, it is here as well since we'll win the pot 1:15 times or chop 1:7 or some combination there of in which will make a call +EV.

If button was more reasonable my previous view of the hand mite have been a bit oversimplified perhaps, but look at his stats and his play in this hand hes probably just throwing money away, so if we could call HU vs just MP profitably why would that change dramatically here just becuz the idiot buttons in the hand behind us?

Again calling will only cost us one BB IMO as if MP bets we call and button raises we can fold almost always even now getting almost 20:1 becuz the pot is protected and 99% of villains are not raising a worse hand vs two that often. Here though this guys stats are almost bad enough I mite throw in that last chip to avoid life tilt if ive seen him do some really bonkers things postflop.

[SomthingOrOther]

[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to give u a way to look at the hand more or less or spots like this in the future.

The only thing that really changes with button being behind us is how often him having us beat or chopping with cuts into the times we chop or beat MP. Hes so terrible though look at his stats, and Id expect him to cap the flop or raise the turn with any of the better hands in his capping range AA QQ AQ or AK, so its only a question of how often we beat MP but chop with button (again I cant imagine a 90/15/3 playing TPTK so passively). Its unlikely this rare occurance will cut into our equity to the point where we can no longer call profitably. Either way though its such a clear call HU since we chop like a third of the time, it is here as well since we'll win the pot 1:15 times or chop 1:7 or some combination there of in which will make a call +EV.

If button was more reasonable my previous view of the hand mite have been a bit oversimplified perhaps, but look at his stats and his play in this hand hes probably just throwing money away, so if we could call HU vs just MP profitably why would that change dramatically here just becuz the idiot buttons in the hand behind us?

Again calling will only cost us one BB IMO as if MP bets we call and button raises we can fold almost always even now getting almost 20:1 becuz the pot is protected and 99% of villains are not raising a worse hand vs two that often. Here though this guys stats are almost bad enough I mite throw in that last chip to avoid life tilt if ive seen him do some really bonkers things postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sence and works for me. I just can seem to call the turn here hoping to chop. I belive in your math. I need some time with it though.

[jstill]

I think the important things for u to just focus on are a couple things

A) the pot is large, its hardly ever right to fold TPTK in any pot esp when u never face 2 bets cold at any point. U ll identify the exceptions eventually dont focus on making big folds yet.

B) Unknowns at low limits should not be given too much credit, not enough where u can fold here. Put in bets and raises for value when appropriate, and then when met with more aggression calldown dont fold. Especially here where u have a read and both of these players stats are terrible so they probably make just as many mistakes postflop as preflop.

C) As you saw their range of hands are wider than you expected, u cant assume players at these limits actions show as much strength as they should. Who knows what their logic is, pokers a tough game to learn and people misapply things and make mistakes regularly, expect that. These players stats would have me assuming MP could play AJ AT A9 ect this way for who knows what reason (his AF is definitely high for his VPIP, he ISNT passive). And even if his range of hands was as tight as ud expect it to be if he was a total passive rock so his range is AA 1 combos 0 outs, QQ 3 combos 0 outs, AK 6 combos chop, and AQ 6 combos 3 outs we still mathematically have to call the turn and river even if u discount AK to 3 combos thinking he mite not always 3bet TPTK after u 3bet pre and raised the flop.

[Point Blank]

[ QUOTE ]
i suck at poker, you suck at life

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possible NC title anyone?