3.40 AQo SB bubble - big stack limps

[jurrasstoil]

Hi,

This hand came up in one of my last sngs.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG (t7325)
Button (t2350)
Hero (t3495)
BB (t1830)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, BB calls t400, UTG calls t400.

Flop: (t1800) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t1230 (All-In)</font>, UTG folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t3030

I told my brother it would be -ev to shove here, because both are shorter than me and biggie got me covered (2x my stack).
That limp from the bigstack just cocked the whole thing up.
//edit:we both agree this is just sick.

Your advices? Push? Fold? Complete?

[vers]

I haven't run it but I don't think shove is neg ev. Shorties should both be calling very tight and we have a pretty good hand. Also UTG bigstack limping = weakness. I really hate open raising here b/c if we cbet we are committing way too many chips.

[jurrasstoil]

I ran it through sngwiz and it is -ev like BIG TIME. varying between -5.5% ev (!!!) and -2.5%.

[vers]

oh I just mean that in such a situation shorties would be calling tight, I realize only 1 of them is in the pot.

What call ranges do you have BB and UTG on? SNGPT can't run spots like this so I can't run it myself.

[jurrasstoil]

BB something like 7-9% AJ, AT, 77.
UTG is a tough one, he played pretty inconsistent. he opens maybe 25-35%. he showed down garbage sometimes when he limped like T/rag.
I think he calls with top 10% AT+, maybe A9, 66+.

[vers]

for 100/200 blinds w/ no antes, those ranges seem excessively loose IMO. I don't play this low so you could be right about it being a neg ev shove.

[DevinLake]

This is a very awkward situation.

I don't think it would be -EV to shove, but I don't think it's optimal either.

With the way the chips are distributed and making assumptions on UTG (CL, open limp = loose donkey), I'd be very tempted to just over limp AQ here. If you raise and get called, the pot size is going to kinda suck when you throw a c-bet out there and get called.

Interesting situation IMO. As played, you pretty much have to fold. If it was HU, I would c/c an all in from the shorty here. But, shortie is deciding to shove with a player left to act and the big stack no less. I'd just let it go on the flop.

[jurrasstoil]

I puked a circle playing this hand.

I was hoping BB just shoves over my raise, then I could fold if UTG repops or calls and call if UTG folds.
Completing would have created the same situation maybe saving me 400 chips.

If both call just 5% (99+) it is still -1.5% ev if button limps 28% and -0.37% if he limps 50%.
But it was the first time he limped 4-handed, so his limping range might be tighter than 50%.

[AMT]

i agree with devin in that its a sticky situation with these stack distributions and reads, and i think its reasonable to shove, but i dont mind completing the sb as it stands. as played, you unfortunately should throw it away.