BB folds 50% from a steal, but my steal backfires.

[Wada]

Victim is 19/6/.4 and attempts to steal 23% but folds BB to steal 50%! He is the BB and I am the button.

2/4 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (3.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero ?????????

[milesdyson]

can you think of a hand you beat? looks like 76s is about it and that's a bluff i don't expect from this kind of guy. there are so many better hands i really don't think it's close.

[Wada]

No I can't.

Other than pairs under 77 or 67.

Theres a debate with this one with another 2+2er that sweated this session with me.

[BubbleMint]

Given his propencity to fold his BB, I think you are good close to never when he bets the river.

Med+ PP, A's,K's and to a lesser extent J's feature heavily in this BB's range.

[Oink]

Fold. Look at the potsize plz

[Noodles.]

I think you should call here. We do not have a really strong hand, but BB here seems to know the concept of stealing, and by checking the turn behind we are inducing a bluff. When villain then bets, I say that this is a bluff more than 4:17 of the time, making this a profitable call.

Edit: changed / to :

[Wada]

Yea after his bet its 4 BBs and really ghetto.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. Look at the potsize plz

[/ QUOTE ]

And the Kc on the turn. Pretty much hits every drawing hand

You cant call this river. Ever!

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should call here. We do not have a really strong hand, but BB here seems to know the concept of stealing, and by checking the turn behind we are inducing a bluff. When villain then bets, I say that this is a bluff more than 4/17 of the time, making this a profitable call.

[/ QUOTE ]
use some hand reading. the guy either called the flop with Ax Jx 7x or a flush/straight draw. the turn hits everything and likely prevents a bluff from 7x. when he bets the river his range is massively weighted toward Ax Kx QT and clubs.

also 4/17 for breakeven is wrong. it's 1/5.25, not 1/4.25.

x = chance you're good
x*4.25 - (1-x)*1 = 0
4.25x = 1-x
5.25x = 1
x = 1/5.25

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1Scd0rNt-s

[Wada]

If I wanted to put this in Pokerstove, what would I need to look at in his PT stats in order to get a somewhat close or valid % range of hands on this guy? So that I could put the range plus the board and my hand into Pokerstove.