Please change the FAQ on bankroll requirements.

[zaephyr]

Given your formula for BR i should have 16,5bi. I have 10bi+ downswing every 15k hands or so ( a bit more) so if i add a bit of tilt i can be "ruined" 3 times a month WOW. I dont like that [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[74o_Clownsuit]

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Given your formula for BR i should have 16,5bi. I have 10bi+ downswing every 15k hands or so ( a bit more) so if i add a bit of tilt i can be "ruined" 3 times a month WOW. I dont like that [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Wow that's quite often...

[SugarPush]

This is a fantastic post.

The key point is that a players bankroll should be a function of win rate, standard deviation (volatility in their play), and comfort level.

We could build a simple table to guide people based on these formulas. The table could contain guidelines to help people estimate their win rates and StdDev as a function of experience, playing style and level. We could use the voluntary statistics survey to help with the estimates.

This would give people more information to use to make better decisions on their bankroll management. It would actually help people avoid going broke because they would be able to estimate the needed bankroll to move up levels.

For example we could probably help build tables with information like: If your win rate at $100nl is X then your win rate at $200nl will probably initially be X*Y and this would help people determine their needed bank rolls much more accurately.

[pzhon]

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Given your formula for BR i should have 16,5bi.

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Which values did you use for c, SD, and WR? What is your confidence interval for your win rate?

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I have 10bi+ downswing every 15k hands or so ( a bit more)


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I'm skeptical. How many of these 10 buy-in downswings have you had in the past 200,000 hands? If you want to be believed, please show us a graph covering several of these downswings (and the win rate you claim). Or did you just have two such downswings that close to each other, and want to claim that such an exceptional grouping is typical? If that is really the typical spacing, then you should have observed many spacings which are much less than 15k hands, and that should be visible in the graph.
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so if i add a bit of tilt i can be "ruined" 3 times a month WOW. I dont like that [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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You withdraw all of your winnings? Who said that was a good idea? You will bust out eventually if you expose yourself to a microscopic risk of ruin repeatedly. That doesn't mean you should pretend that the microscopic risk is larger than it is.

Your track record already includes your current pattern of tilting. A little bit of tilt wouldn't put you over the edge that often. A significant amount of tilt on top of your usual level would, if you are withdrawing all of your winnings for some reason, and if your 10 buy-in downswings are really as common as you say.

The security blanket you need to avoid tilting is not a rational matter. It will vary from person to person. However, recognizing that you can rebuild from a lot less than 20 buy-ins with high probability may help you to avoid tilting when you do face a bad streak.

[PBJaxx]

I have never heard of Pzhon, but I absolutely love his dedication to correctness. I understand the perspective of some of the negative responses, but pzhon's points are very accurate, and I like his idea.

The bottom line is that as you develop as a player you begin to understand the bankroll you require to feel comfortable and play your "A" game. Hopefully, you also gain some basic understanding of statistics in the process to help you identify a proper bankroll for yourself. Certainly putting a more detailed/accurate description of our "rule of thumb" can only be a good thing.

Regarding what people take away from it, I don't really care. If anyone reads this thread and goes banging away with a tiny bankroll, then it is there own fault. This forum is not here to protect people from themselves. We are here to study and share information.

Good work, OP.

[Bulletproof Monk]

this thread was waaaay tldr for me, but i think that if someone cares this much they are probly right and we should change it