Mayweather/de la Hoya

[Post-Oak]

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a lot of people's hearts are rooting for DLH and people often can't help but follow their heart. Plus in many ways...DLH should really be the favorite, PBF is coming up to challenge him for HIS title. Just some square food for thought.

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This is absolutely hilarious coming from the guy who made it quite clear that he hated De La Hoya, referring to him as a homosexual (I see you edited your post). You then went on to compare him to Don King, the only bigger slur in the boxing business.

I have never liked De La Hoya, but I am rational enough to realize that he is not gay. Yes, he has no killer instinct. It's true he literally blew one of the biggest fights in history by running away for 3 rounds because he misjudged how far ahead he was on points. It's also true he has seemed more interested in his singing "career" than boxing. The guy has still had a great career in the ring though. Unlike Mayweather, he actually does take all of the tough fights.

[igetbadbeat]

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I would also think that PBF by decision is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

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About 0 chance a book takes this parlay or if-bet. The correlation is way too obvious.

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Come on guys. That's not close to being true.

These props are already available:

Floyd Mayweather Jr -200 Over 11½ -260
Oscar De La Hoya +170 Under 11½ +220

Mayweather Jr wins inside distance +435
Not Mayweather Jr inside distance -570

Mayweather Jr wins by 12 rnd decision +112
Not Mayweather Jr by 12 rnd decision -132

De La Hoya wins inside distance +504
De La Hoya inside distance -707

De La Hoya wins by 12 rnd decision +376
De La Hoya by 12 rnd decison -471

Mayweather Jr/De La Hoya draw +1500
Fight not a draw -2200

F.Mayweather Jr wins only -170
De La Hoya wins or draw +150

O.De La Hoya wins only +180
Mayweather wins or draw -220

Notice that taking Mayweather to win by decision pays BETTER than a parlay on Mayweather/Over (which would be +107).

Again, I think this is another case of a bunch of 2+2ers getting together and assuming that, because they agree with each other, anyone who bets the other side is a "square".

Here's my take on the fight... Mayweather is not invincible. I have been raving about him to my friends since he was at 130 lbs. I never understood how so many people thought Corrales would win their fight.

But now he is 30 years old and fighting at 154 lbs. For fighters who rely on speed, getting up there around 30 years old can be a real handicap.

Also, he has no business at 154. When he fought at 147, he weighed 149 on fight night! This means he doesn't even have any business fighting at 147. At the 30 day weigh in, FMJ only weighed 152! He is going be UNDER the weight limit on fight night! De La Hoya was at 164.5. There is a clear size, strength and punching power advantage for Oscar here.

De La Hoya has also fought as low as 130, but has moved up as he has gotten older and bigger, and his strength and power has come up with him. He had no problem hurting big, strong welterweights (147) and has still shown very good power at 154.

I'm not touching this fight, because I can't really decide what De La Hoya's chances are. I understand that Floyd should be favored (he is still the best pound for pound in the world), but I also realize that this guy could be fighting at 135 still if he really wanted to. He is jumping weight classes through pure hubris.

He didn't fight any top fighters at 140, and Zab Judah (who was coming off a loss) was the best he fought at 147. Now he is taking on a world class 154 pounder. In other words, he hasn't proven much above 135. He has looked awesome, but has disappointed the fans and soiled his legacy by cherry picking easy fights when much better opponents (Hatton, Cotto, Margarito, etc.) were available.

It would not shock me if De La Hoya knocked out Mayweather. De La Hoya has very good power, and is great with his left hand (a must for fighting someone with amazing speed).

Again, I am not betting on De La Hoya. I am not betting on this fight at all. If the odds come down on FMJ, then I might put some money on him. I don't see the over as the slam dunk you guys do though.

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BEST ANALYSIS and commentary so far, I still think the over has value in it though. This fight goes the distance a great amount of the time IMO.

[Jordan]

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I would also think that PBF *by decision* is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

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About 0 chance a book takes this parlay or if-bet. The correlation is way too obvious.

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Right on guys. That's exactly true.


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[Post-Oak]

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dlh is 4 years older and has won 1 fight in last 3 years.

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This is probably the main reason I won't touch this fight. De La Hoya has been relatively inactive, which makes it hard to judge how good he still is. He lost to Hopkins at 160, and Mayweather would have undoubtedly lost that same fight, so his recent loss doesn't tell us anything. His problems with Shane Mosley may tell us a lot more, but that was years ago.

I do know that he hits much, much harder than FMJ. He knocked out Ricardo Mayorga (at 154) in his last fight, a guy who was an absolute beast at 147. There is no way in hell that FMJ could so much as stun Mayorga.

This fight is too tough for me to get a handle on due to several factors which make this an odd fight.

1. it's hard to know how good De La Hoya still is
2. Mayweather has not faced any truly top opponents above 135
3. Mayweather is jumping so many weight classes, that he will weigh below the max weigh in on fight night (which is basically unheard of)

[Post-Oak]

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I would also think that PBF *by decision* is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

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Sorry, I assumed you meant parlaying FMJ to win and the over.

LOL, how in the world could you parlay him to win by decision and the OVER! No book, or bookie, would pay that out even if they had accidentally accepted the bet.

[JPT III]

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I would also think that PBF *by decision* is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

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Sorry, I assumed you meant parlaying FMJ to win and the over.

LOL, how in the world could you parlay him to win by decision and the OVER! No book, or bookie, would pay that out even if they had accidentally accepted the bet.

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Oops! Good catch. I meant PBF to win, with the over, of course.

Good analysis too, Oak. Although I'm still on the over train, groupthink or not. For some of the same reasons you stated above, I think PBF will simply shut things down and stay away from DLH if he senses any trouble. And I'm pretty sure he's quick and elusive enough to do so -- even if it means ultimately losing the fight on points.

[Post-Oak]

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Good analysis too, Oak. Although I'm still on the over train, groupthink or not. For some of the same reasons you stated above, I think PBF will simply shut things down and stay away from DLH if he senses any trouble. And I'm pretty sure he's quick and elusive enough to do so -- even if it means ultimately losing the fight on points.

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I wouldn't really call it groupthink, I just thought you guys were being too dismissive of the case for Oscar. I assume it is not just squares betting on him.

If I HAD to bet on this fight, I would take the Over and/or FMJ to win by decision.

The reason I haven't placed any bets is because I just feel so uncertain as to what will happen in this fight, since there are a few strange circumstances involved. That's why I am not gonna touch it.

Also, remember that everyone realizes that the fight will probably go 12 rounds. The question is the EV of laying -260. I do lean over. I am not convinced it's anything like a slam dunk though.

[NajdorfDefense]

You can still find -230 Over which I am not touching.

[Phanekim]

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I would also think that PBF by decision is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

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About 0 chance a book takes this parlay or if-bet. The correlation is way too obvious.

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Come on guys. That's not close to being true.

These props are already available:

Floyd Mayweather Jr -200 Over 11½ -260
Oscar De La Hoya +170 Under 11½ +220

Mayweather Jr wins inside distance +435
Not Mayweather Jr inside distance -570

Mayweather Jr wins by 12 rnd decision +112
Not Mayweather Jr by 12 rnd decision -132

De La Hoya wins inside distance +504
De La Hoya inside distance -707

De La Hoya wins by 12 rnd decision +376
De La Hoya by 12 rnd decison -471

Mayweather Jr/De La Hoya draw +1500
Fight not a draw -2200

F.Mayweather Jr wins only -170
De La Hoya wins or draw +150

O.De La Hoya wins only +180
Mayweather wins or draw -220

Notice that taking Mayweather to win by decision pays BETTER than a parlay on Mayweather/Over (which would be +107).

Again, I think this is another case of a bunch of 2+2ers getting together and assuming that, because they agree with each other, anyone who bets the other side is a "square".

Here's my take on the fight... Mayweather is not invincible. I have been raving about him to my friends since he was at 130 lbs. I never understood how so many people thought Corrales would win their fight.

But now he is 30 years old and fighting at 154 lbs. For fighters who rely on speed, getting up there around 30 years old can be a real handicap.

Also, he has no business at 154. When he fought at 147, he weighed 149 on fight night! This means he doesn't even have any business fighting at 147. At the 30 day weigh in, FMJ only weighed 152! He is going be UNDER the weight limit on fight night! De La Hoya was at 164.5. There is a clear size, strength and punching power advantage for Oscar here.

De La Hoya has also fought as low as 130, but has moved up as he has gotten older and bigger, and his strength and power has come up with him. He had no problem hurting big, strong welterweights (147) and has still shown very good power at 154.

I'm not touching this fight, because I can't really decide what De La Hoya's chances are. I understand that Floyd should be favored (he is still the best pound for pound in the world), but I also realize that this guy could be fighting at 135 still if he really wanted to. He is jumping weight classes through pure hubris.

He didn't fight any top fighters at 140, and Zab Judah (who was coming off a loss) was the best he fought at 147. Now he is taking on a world class 154 pounder. In other words, he hasn't proven much above 135. He has looked awesome, but has disappointed the fans and soiled his legacy by cherry picking easy fights when much better opponents (Hatton, Cotto, Margarito, etc.) were available.

It would not shock me if De La Hoya knocked out Mayweather. De La Hoya has very good power, and is great with his left hand (a must for fighting someone with amazing speed).

Again, I am not betting on De La Hoya. I am not betting on this fight at all. If the odds come down on FMJ, then I might put some money on him. I don't see the over as the slam dunk you guys do though.

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I agree wholeheartedly on this. I ain't touching this fight. If you put a gun to my head I'll take pretty boy and the over especially when the line goes down on those options near fight time.

[Post-Oak]

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You can still find -230 Over which I am not touching.

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Yeah, this thread made me realize that there are a lot of differing lines (and arbs) available for this fight. I didn't know that FMJ was as low as -170 anywhere.

I just checked the following books: Bodog, Sportsbook, Olympic, WSEX, Sports Interaction, Bet Jamaica, SkyBook and 5Dimes.

The best lines:

FMJ is -165 at SportsBook
Oscar is +180 at Olympic, WSEX, and BetJamaica

Over 11.5 is -220 at Bodog
Under 11.5 is +240 at Olympic

Before you arb FMJ/DLH, make sure that a draw is a push and not a loss at the books you are placing the bet. Also be aware of the max bets.