Mayweather/de la Hoya

[igetbadbeat]

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I'm still holding off on this bet. I really want to take Oscar the money line i'm looking at right now is +180. I think there is value on the de la hoya side since he can knock mayweather out, but mayweather shouldn't be able to knock out de la hoya. The other major factor is since there fighting at 154 will this slow Mayweather down just enough to give Oscar the one shot he needs?? Really tough fight to call. I haven't placed a bet yet because i'm afraid that i'm betting with my heart and not my head because Mayweather is really a thug and I would prefer to see him get the %*(&$*(&# kicked out of him.

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I firmly believe Oscar Dela Hoya is the bad guy of this story. Mayweather is a young cocky kid who doesn't know how to come across well on TV and in the public's eye, but he may be the hardest worker in the sport and the smartest boxer ever. Dela Hoya is a promoter who is looking for his huge payday and knows how to present himself well for the media. Even though his true focus is not a passion for boxing instead he's realized how to exploit people the don King style and is cashing in on his soon to be finished career.



removed a slur that was unnecessary. -P

[NajdorfDefense]

why are odds dropping on De la hoya so much? People betting against PBF because he's acting like a thug?? Dropped 30c at cris this week alone.

[igetbadbeat]

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why are odds dropping on De la hoya so much? People betting against PBF because he's acting like a thug?? Dropped 30c at cris this week alone.

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a lot of people's hearts are rooting for DLH and people often can't help but follow their heart. Plus in many ways...DLH should really be the favorite, PBF is coming up to challenge him for HIS title. Just some square food for thought.

[NajdorfDefense]

dlh is 4 years older and has won 1 fight in last 3 years. While PBF is moving up, he's done it 3 times before with no problem, just like DLH did before Hopkins put a stop to that.

I wouldn't lay -220 on PBH but -180 and lower is starting to look good.

[JPT III]

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dlh is 4 years older and has won 1 fight in last 3 years. While PBF is moving up, he's done it 3 times before with no problem, just like DLH did before Hopkins put a stop to that.

I wouldn't lay -220 on PBH but -180 and lower is starting to look good.

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I agree with this, and hopefully it will continue to drop over the next week and a half. If it gets to -175 or so, I'm on PBF. Just can't see him losing this. And I still love the over. Nobody getting KO'd here.

I would also think that PBF by decision is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

[Jordan]

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I would also think that PBF by decision is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

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About 0 chance a book takes this parlay or if-bet. The correlation is way too obvious.

[igetbadbeat]

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dlh is 4 years older and has won 1 fight in last 3 years. While PBF is moving up, he's done it 3 times before with no problem, just like DLH did before Hopkins put a stop to that.



I wouldn't lay -220 on PBH but -180 and lower is starting to look good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, and hopefully it will continue to drop over the next week and a half. If it gets to -175 or so, I'm on PBF. Just can't see him losing this. And I still love the over. Nobody getting KO'd here.

I would also think that PBF by decision is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

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hah I've tried betting parlays such as "Mavs -3 and Mavs moneyline"...it never works.

[Donk4Life]

Does anyone have information on line trends on other "good guy-bad guy" match ups in the past. For example, how did the line move on Hagler-Leonard or on Cooney-Holmes? Do the good guy betters inevitably drive a line toward's their fighter? Or do lines usually stagnate anyway?

[JPT III]

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dlh is 4 years older and has won 1 fight in last 3 years. While PBF is moving up, he's done it 3 times before with no problem, just like DLH did before Hopkins put a stop to that.



I wouldn't lay -220 on PBH but -180 and lower is starting to look good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, and hopefully it will continue to drop over the next week and a half. If it gets to -175 or so, I'm on PBF. Just can't see him losing this. And I still love the over. Nobody getting KO'd here.

I would also think that PBF by decision is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

[/ QUOTE ]


hah I've tried betting parlays such as "Mavs -3 and Mavs moneyline"...it never works.

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Yeah, a local guy is probably the best chance of getting one of these (at least the more obvious ones) accepted (in addition to other +EV scenarios). For a while now, it's been on my "to do" list to get me a local guy to beat up on. Anyone got one in NYC?

[Post-Oak]

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I would also think that PBF by decision is correlated with the over, if there are any books that will permit such a parlay (or "if bet").

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About 0 chance a book takes this parlay or if-bet. The correlation is way too obvious.

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Come on guys. That's not close to being true.

These props are already available:

Floyd Mayweather Jr -200 Over 11½ -260
Oscar De La Hoya +170 Under 11½ +220

Mayweather Jr wins inside distance +435
Not Mayweather Jr inside distance -570

Mayweather Jr wins by 12 rnd decision +112
Not Mayweather Jr by 12 rnd decision -132

De La Hoya wins inside distance +504
De La Hoya inside distance -707

De La Hoya wins by 12 rnd decision +376
De La Hoya by 12 rnd decison -471

Mayweather Jr/De La Hoya draw +1500
Fight not a draw -2200

F.Mayweather Jr wins only -170
De La Hoya wins or draw +150

O.De La Hoya wins only +180
Mayweather wins or draw -220

Notice that taking Mayweather to win by decision pays BETTER than a parlay on Mayweather/Over (which would be +107).

Again, I think this is another case of a bunch of 2+2ers getting together and assuming that, because they agree with each other, anyone who bets the other side is a "square".

Here's my take on the fight... Mayweather is not invincible. I have been raving about him to my friends since he was at 130 lbs. I never understood how so many people thought Corrales would win their fight.

But now he is 30 years old and fighting at 154 lbs. For fighters who rely on speed, getting up there around 30 years old can be a real handicap.

Also, he has no business at 154. When he fought at 147, he weighed 149 on fight night! This means he doesn't even have any business fighting at 147. At the 30 day weigh in, FMJ only weighed 152! He is going be UNDER the weight limit on fight night! De La Hoya was at 164.5. There is a clear size, strength and punching power advantage for Oscar here.

De La Hoya has also fought as low as 130, but has moved up as he has gotten older and bigger, and his strength and power has come up with him. He had no problem hurting big, strong welterweights (147) and has still shown very good power at 154.

I'm not touching this fight, because I can't really decide what De La Hoya's chances are. I understand that Floyd should be favored (he is still the best pound for pound in the world), but I also realize that this guy could be fighting at 135 still if he really wanted to. He is jumping weight classes through pure hubris.

He didn't fight any top fighters at 140, and Zab Judah (who was coming off a loss) was the best he fought at 147. Now he is taking on a world class 154 pounder. In other words, he hasn't proven much above 135. He has looked awesome, but has disappointed the fans and soiled his legacy by cherry picking easy fights when much better opponents (Hatton, Cotto, Margarito, etc.) were available.

It would not shock me if De La Hoya knocked out Mayweather. De La Hoya has very good power, and is great with his left hand (a must for fighting someone with amazing speed).

Again, I am not betting on De La Hoya. I am not betting on this fight at all. If the odds come down on FMJ, then I might put some money on him. I don't see the over as the slam dunk you guys do though.