Is being in the bottom 3 actually helpful?

[StellarWind]

One thing I read over-and-over on this board is that if you finish in the bottom three it will help you the next week. People even claim AI rigs the bottom three to exploit this effect.

This idea is counterintuitive to me. Fashion, peer pressure, fads, group thinking, conformism, the madness of crowds--we have a thousands names for it but they all amount to the same thing. It's hard to hold fast to an idea or a preference in the face of evidence that no one else agrees with you. Sometimes I wish my eldest would shut up at dinner time because he spreads his dislike of certain foods to his little brothers. The power of suggestion is strongest with subjective subjects such as food or music.

Did Chris Richardson's supporters really get a wake-up call last night? Or just a huge dose of negative peer pressure?

Why do we believe the bottom-three boost theory? Is there evidence for it?

[Aloysius]

[ QUOTE ]
Did Chris Richardson's supporters really get a wake-up call last night? Or just a huge dose of negative peer pressure?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would imagine that it's a neutral to positive impact. Negative peer pressure is unlikely when the voters are such a loose confederation, and the voting is a private act.

-Al

[NoChance]

I Think the bottom 3 boost theory is dependent on the situation. For example, if Sanjaya is in bottom 3 it wont boost anything because everyone kind of expects it to be that way. On the other hand, when a contestant is perceived to be safe and all of the sudden shows up in the bottom 3 (two in this case) then I think it does serve as a wakeup call. I think Cris R's voters will respond next week and he will be safe (unfortunately).

[pete fabrizio]

Historically, being in the b3 is the kiss of death. Each week's eliminee is pretty likely to come from the previous week's b3. Surprise b3's lose their momentum and go from front-runner to out in a hurry. Ocassionally you see a brief rally for someone in there for the first time, but the main way out of the dumps is to give great performances (e.g. Elliot last year - perrenial b3).

[GoRedBirds]

Also, people who may not vote at all because the contestant they like to watch is considered safe may be motivated to pick up the phone and vote if their contestant is shown to be in danger. I think the proof of this is the increase in number of total votes from show to show throughout a particular season. I have no proof for this, but I'd be willing to bet that the voting increases after a "shocking" elimination.

[TimTimSalabim]

Yes, being in the bottom 3 and not eliminated is on balance probably a good thing. It's human nature that people are going to be more motivated to vote if they think their favorite is in danger. Fantasia, Ruben, McPhee for a few examples all spent time in the bottom 3. More currently, look at how the VFTW movement got going into high gear this week after Sanjaya was in the bottom last week, and probably same with Phil's fans. Whereas Chris R and Stephanie fans probably thought they were safe. If someone just doesn't have a fan base to be mobilized, they're going to consistently be in the bottom, but other than that there is usually plenty of fluctuation in the bottom 3.

[TimTimSalabim]

An interesting side question is why they only announced a bottom 2 this week. Is there someone they don't want to give an assist?

[smbruin22]

op's original question is interesting... had somewhat passively wondered the same thing... hayley and phil have recovered nicely from their bottom 3 results, others it has been the kiss of death.... i do think betting markets have put too much emphasis on it. i think the voting is pretty close in the lower middle and then the judges i think throw out some votes.

[mynamewastaken]

[ QUOTE ]
Historically, being in the b3 is the kiss of death. Each week's eliminee is pretty likely to come from the previous week's b3. Surprise b3's lose their momentum and go from front-runner to out in a hurry. Ocassionally you see a brief rally for someone in there for the first time, but the main way out of the dumps is to give great performances (e.g. Elliot last year - perrenial b3).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if this is true, but we should compile data on it. Where can I find show by show breakdowns for previous seasons, so I could see who was bottom 3 and who got eliminated quickly?

My intuition tells me that the boottee is likely to NOT have been in the b3 the previous week more often than not.

[mynamewastaken]

[ QUOTE ]
An interesting side question is why they only announced a bottom 2 this week. Is there someone they don't want to give an assist?

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems almost guaranteed that revealing the mystery contestant would influence the results one way or another. My only guess is it was Lakisha.

If not for DI I would have guessed Melinda.